APPENDIX A CALCULATIONS OF THE POWER POOL GENERATING MARGINS REQUIRED TO MEET THE LOLP CRITERIA A.l Introduction A variety of criteria are available to assess the reliability with which terrestrial power pools meet the demand for electric power. Of these, one of the most common is the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP), the probability that the demand for power shall exceed its availability. The most commonly used power pool design criteria is that despite the inherent fallibility of generating equipment, the demand for power shall exceed the available generating capacity for only onetenth of a day each year (LOLP = .1 days/year). Extra generating capacity (reserve margin) must be installed in the power pool to ensure the ability of the pool to meet this criterion. Power pools are usually made up of a variety of different types and sizes of generators and these generators each have a different forced outage rate. The larger the generator capacity, the higher the likely forced outage rate. Calculating the LOLP of such a power pool and then the required reserve margin using standard techniques* is conceptually simple but computationally complex. Because of the limitations on the time and resources available for this program, a simpler model (as described in Section 2.3) of the generation mix has been used. * R. Billinton, et. al. "Power System Reliability Calculations," The MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1973.
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