1977 A.D. Little SPS Effects On Electric Industry

This Appendix contains the derivation of the equations used to calculate the LOLP for each of the maintenance intervals; the LOLP for the year is the average of the LOLP during each maintenance interval. The total amount of installed generating capacity required to meet this criteria and the scheduled maintenance requirements of each generator is also derived. A detailed description of the calculations for the power pools and generators considered in this study are presented in Section A.3. A.2 Calculation of the LOLP The probability of m out of a total of n machines are all available at the same time (available generating capacity = m GWe) is The probability that the demand for electric power between m and (m-l)Glfe can be met at the arbitrary time t when it occurs is The probability that m machines or more are available at the arbitrary time t is

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