• No scheduled maintenance (two rectennas) or • Unavailability due scheduled maintenance = .2 The problem is to calculate the probability that the demand for electric power is likely to exceed the generating capacity of the power pool during the year. This calculation is obtained by the following steps: 1. Calculate the probability that the demand for power shall be between specific levels m and (m-1) GW at at an arbitrary time t. 2. Calculate the probability that available generating capacity shall be m GWe or more at an arbitrary time t. 3. Multiply the two previously calculated probabilities together to get the probability that the load between m and (m-1) GW will be met by the power pool whenever the load occurs. 4. Sum over all the possible power demand states of the power pool to get the probability that the load, whatever it is, will be met by the power pool. 5. Calculate the probability of not meeting the load (the loss of load probability). The power demand as a function of time used in these calculations was determinate in nature, i.e., the power demand P at time t was assumed known with certainty. Thus, the probability o o that the power demand is between m and (m-1) GWe at an arbitrary time t is the source as the probability that t is inside those time intervals when the power demand is between m and (m-1) GWe. This probability is
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