1977 A.D. Little SPS Effects On Electric Industry

JPL Cover Page	1
Distribution List	2
Report Cover	4
Report Letter	5
Table of Contents	6
List of Figures	8
Fig 1.1 Required Percent Installed Margin As A Function of the Power Pool Size - 1 SPS	23
Fig 1.2 Required Perecent Installed Mrgin As A Function of the Power Pool Size - 2 SPSs	24
FIg 1.3 Required Perecent Installed Mrgin As A Function of the Power Pool Size - 6 SPSs	25
Fig 2.1 National Electric Reliability Council	35
Fig 2.2 Frequency Distribution As A Function of TIme After Perturbation	41
Fig 2.3 Transmitted Power as a Function of the Generator Power Angle	44
Fig 2.4 Diagram of Load Control Areas and Power System Interconnections	47
Fig 2.5 Demand for Power In the Two Power Consuming Elements of the Composite Power Pool as a Function of the Time-Of-Da	57
Fig 2.6 Required Percent Installed Margin as a Function of the Power Pool Size - 1 SPS	58
Fig 2.7 Required Percent Installed Margin as a Function of the Power Pool Size - 2 SPSs	59
Fig 2.8 Required Percent Installed Margin as a Function of the Power Pool Size - 6 SPSs	60
Fig 2.9 Demand For Power From Conventional Generators In The West Coast Component of the Composite Power Pool as a Function of Time	69
Fig 3.1 Demand for Electric Power Over A Weekly Cycle	77
Fig 3.2 Power Demand as a Function of Time - 5% Growth Rate	79
FIg 3.3 Power Demand as a Function of Time - 5% Growth Rate	80
Fig 3.4 Avereage Fuel Fixed and Total Pre Unit Costs	89
Fig 3.5 Average Per Unit Fuel Costs FIxed Costs and Total Costs	90
Fig 3.6A Total Debt As A Function of Time	101
Fig 3.6B Debt Incurred Yearly as a Function of Time	101
Fig 3.7A Total Debt as a Function of Time	102
Fig 3.7B Bebt Incurred Yearly as a Function of Time	102
List of Tables	10
1.1 Installed Generating Margin (GWe)For the Various Pools as a Function of the Circumstances	21
2.1 Regional Load Density (1974) (contiguous U.S. only)	34
2.2 Required Installed Generating Margin (GWe) For a Range of Power Pools According to Various Circumstances	55
3.1 Incremental Costs of Conventional Generation	96
3.2 Maximum Allowed Discount Rate As a Function of Inflation Revenues Set Equal to Fuel Costs of Nuclear Generator	97
3.3 Maximum Allowed Discount Rate as a Function of Inflation Revenues Set Equal to Fuel Costs of Coal Generators	97
3.4 Maximum Allowed Discount Rate as a Function of Inflation Revenues Set Equal to Fuel Costs of Oil Generators	98
3.5 Year _D Becomes Negative as a Function of Inflation - v Nuclear	99
3.6 Year _D Becomes Negative as a Function of Inflation - v Coal	100
3.7 Year _D Becomes Negative as a Function of Inflation - v Oil	100
A.1 Length of Time (Hours) Power Demand Between m and m-1 GWe - 30GWe Pool	120
A.2 Length of Time (Hours) Power Demand Between m and m-1 GWe - 40GWe Pool	121
A.3 Length of Time (Hours) Power Demand Between m and m-1 GWe - 50GWe Pool	122
A.4 Length of Time (Hours) Power Demand Between m and m-1 GWe - Composite Pool	124
A.5 Required Number of Conventional Generators in a 30 GWe Power Pool as a Function of Maintenance Interval and Circumstances	126
A.6 Required Number of Conventional Generators in a 40 GWe Power Pool as a Function of Maintenance Interval and Circumstances	127
A.7 Required Number of Conventional Generators in a 50 GWe Power Pool as a Function of Maintenance Interval and Circumstances	128
A.8 Required Number of Conventional Generators in Each Portion of the Composite Power Pool (30 GWe and 30 GWe) as a Function of Maintenance Interval and Circumstances	133
Introduction and Summary	12
1.1 Executive Summary	12
1.2 Reliability and Stability	16
1.3 Possible Ownership of the SPS	26
1.4 Utility Participation in SPS Related RD&D	30
1.5 Utility Liabilities Associated with the SPS	30
1.6 Structure of the Report	31
2.0 Reliability and Stability	32
2.1 Background	32
2,2 Power System Stability Characteristics	37
2.2.1 Introduction and Results	37
2.2.2 System Dynamics	38
2.2.3 Protection Devices	43
2.2.4 Northeast Blackout	46
2.3 Power Pool Reliability	50
2.3.1 Introduction and Summary	50
2.3.2 Formulation of the Problem	61
2.3.2.1 Definitions	61
2.3.2.2 Power Pool Loads	65
2.3.2.3 Number of Required Generators	68
3.0 Possible Ownership of SPS	72
3.1 Introduction	72
3.1.1 Summary	72
3.1.2 General Financial Characteristics of the Generation Mix	76
3.2 Purchase of the SPS by a Utility or Consortium of Utilities	85
3.3 "Leasing" the SPS	92
3.4 Pricing SPS Produced Energy at the Incremental Cost of Alternative Generation	94
3.4.1 Introduction	94
3.4.2 Calculated Maximum Discount Rates	95
4.0 Utility Participation in the SPS RD&D Programs	103
5.0 Utility Liability Due to the Adverse Effects of SPS Related Activities	107
Appendix A: Calculation of the Power Pool Genreating Margins Required To Meet the LOLP Criteria	113
Appendix B: Change In Power Pool Due to SPS	134
Appendix C: Cash Flow Analysis - SPS Energy Prices At The Cost of Alternative Base Load Generation	137

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