Current Predictions—Figure 2-4 shows historical (4) and forecasted (1 and 5) annual additions to U.S. installed capacity. Note that these are net additions after retirement of obsolete capacity. Actual sales are 1% to 2% greater. Again note the dramatic changes resulting from the capacity margin produced by reduced electricity consumption. The projected 1973 addition rate for the year 1990 was 64 GW (64000 MW); the 1974 projection is for 53 GW per year for 1990. Fig. 2-4. Annual Additions to Installed Capacity Figure 4 also shows the trend and forecast for the addition rate of nuclear-generated electricity. In 1973, nuclear provided 4.8% of our capacity. This was 16 years from the initial power reactor and nine years after the first "commercially competitive" reactor of 1964. In the 16 years from 1964 until 1980 nuclear energy is forecasted to grow to capture 13.6% of the electric power market. In another 15 years it will represent 30% of our capacity (but provide over 50% of the kWh) (1). It thus appears reasonable to assume early market capture rates of ^15% for SPS (assuming equivalent economics). In England, nuclear capacity was added at approximately five times the percentage rate of the United States. Should superior economics be achieved, i.e., very low costs for space-based power, the capture rate could be even higher. Other factors could also accelerate space power incorporation, such as nuclear power moratoriums or legislation which levies the full "social" costs of fossil fuel usage on the electric power customer. The current social cost for the use of coal may be 13 to 15 mills/kWh (7). 2.2 REQUIREMENTS The following requirements were applied throughout the study: 1. Provide electrical power for commercial utilization in U.S. 2. System sizes for 5 and 10 GW ground output. 3. Power source in geosynchronous orbit, microwave power transfer. 4. Program schedule highlights: 12/31/79 End of Concept Definition and Analytical Efforts, Preferred Concept Chosen, Technology Verification Plan Complete. 12/31/87 Technology Verification Activities Complete for Go-Ahead for Phase C/D on SPS, HLLV, LTV, etc. 1/1/96 Initial Operational Capability of Full Scale Power Satellite 5. Technology Level: The technology levels shall be those available for subscale (e.g., lab) demonstration five years prior to operational use. 6. Program Definition: The expansion rate of U.S. electric power generation shall be assumed to be 4.5% per year, the fraction of total capacity from satellite power shall be: a. 10 Years after IOC. 10% b. 20 Years after IOC.25% 7. Nominal life of the space power units and the ground receiving stations shall be 30 years, assuming appropriate maintenance. 8. System safety is to be such that: a. No failure mode shall cause non-program personnel to be exposed to microwave radiation flux greater than the current U.S. exposure standard of 10 mW/cm2. b. Public exposure to nuclear radiation from either system operations or failure (including reactor meltdown/vapori- zation/release) shall not exceed the current U.S. public exposure standard.
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