Table 2.2. Projections of Future Global Energy Release and Resulting Surface Temperature Response energy absorbed at the surface, Kellogg predicted a 100-fold increase in heat release by the year 2100. He also suggested, on the basis of a consensus of climate models, that a 1% increase in available heat at the earth's surface translates to a 1° to 4°C increase in surface temperature. This can certainly be classified as a significant climatic perturbation. General atmospheric circulation models have been used to simulate atmospheric response to man-made heat release. Washington^ assumed a geographical distribution of energy use on the basis of current population density, and assumed a per capita energy use of 15 kW by an ultimate population of 20 x 10$ people. Based on a simulation of positive thermal pollution and a control run, Washington's results (for a time-averaged January simulation) showed temperature changes of up to 10°C in the northern hemisphere and 1-2°C in the tropics. However, further experiments with the model showed that the atmospheric effects of thermal pollution could not be separated from the natural fluctuations of the model over the averaging period used. A number of simulations have been carried out to investigate the impacts of extremely large energy releases over relatively small areas, to assess, for example, the impacts of intense regional development or of an extremely large energy park. The results of Llewellyn and Washington^ and Williams et al.l? show large increases in temperature close to the heat
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