4 UNCERTAINTIES AND CONCLUSIONS 4.1 UNCERTAINTIES AND GAPS IN THE DATA Despite the amount of research already undertaken in the study of climatic change, numerous uncertainties and gaps in data still persist and make it extremely difficult to project future climate or the response of climate to various anthropogenic inputs. Therefore, it would currently be extremely difficult for decision makers to include climate as a consideration in energy policy. Some of the gaps in knowledge that need to be filled are as follows: • The magnitude of the impact of deforestation on global CO2 levels is not currently known. • It is not known whether the biosphere is now increasing or decreasing. • Because of the above two considerations, and because of uncertainties concerning the oceans as a sink for CO2, a satisfactory model of the carbon cycle has yet to be developed. • Probably the biggest gap in climate change research is the lack of a believable climate simulation model. Many researchers doubt that one will ever be developed. Part of the problem is the inability to validate such a model. • Better knowledge is needed of the physical mechanisms of climatic feedback effects. The most important of these are the cloud-temperature feedback and the thermodynamic ocean feedback. Better ways of simulating these feedback mechanisms in climate models also need to be developed. • More work needs to be done to characterize the optical properties of atmospheric particles. The likely direction of temperature response to an increase in atmospheric particles has yet to be determined. • A better understanding is needed of how global temperature change will affect regional temperature and precipitation trends and global circulation. • The dynamics of the melting of polar ice must be better understood so that the impacts of global warming may be ascertained. • The record of stratospheric and tropospheric temperatures is not extensive and detailed. Trends in such records that exist are somewhat obscured by the effects of volcanism .
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