1978 DOE SPS Economic Demographic Issues

consequences in the SPS literature. Therefore, these sections review knowledge about industrial location and population migration that has accumulated independent of the SPS issue. Section 2 traces the development of industrial location theory and places in perspective the primary and secondary factors that have been shown by empirical research to influence the distribution of industrial activity. Section 2 concludes with a review and assessment of approaches to locational analysis that can be applied to the study of industrial location as it may be affected by SPS. Export-base theory is evidenced to provide a strong foundation for estimating the types and levels of basic economic activity (e.g., manufacturing) that may be attracted toward the SPS electric rectifying sites. It is concluded that, from these estimates of basic industrial attraction, one can develop forecasts of the employment and population changes attendant to relocations of manufacturing using additional methods. However, in order to apply these additional methods, the causal relationship between economic change and population migration must be understood. Section 3 reviews the literature that has examined this relationship and assesses the two schools of theory that have emerged. Export-base theorists have held that population follows movements of economic activity and employment; whereas another school of theorists have held that change in economic activity and employment follows population movements. The most important differences between these theories are examined in Sec. 3 and the findings of supporting studies are assessed. Based on this assessment, it is concluded that export-base provides the more valid theory upon which to build a methodology for estimating changes in regional employment and population resulting from the development of electric generating capacity. Section 3 also describes a computerized export-base methodology that has been developed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) for this purpose. Section 4 focuses on the economic and demographic problems and implications particular to SPS rectenna siting that need further study using the approach set forth in Sec. 3. After a brief description of the SPS concept, and a short statement of justification for concentration on the rectenna element of the system, Sec. 4 examines the pre-deployment implications for population displacement and the post-deployment impacts of industrial and population relocation. This section also deals, albeit briefly, with the issues of public acceptance and international moves as they relate to rectenna siting in the U.S. The major conclusions of Sec. 4 are that rectennae siting and the pricing

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