3 RELATION OF POPULATION TO INDUSTRIAL LOCATION Having discussed those factors that determine industrial location and some of the theoretical approaches that can be used to predict industrial location, we turn in this section to questions of how population shifts are related to geographic shifts of industry. At one extreme, it is possible to argue that industrial location shifts cause population shifts (migration) but not the reverse. Equally extreme is the position that migration causes industry to follow and no reverse linkages are present. Under certain circumstances, either one of these positions can be correct. In the first case, the opening of a mineral extraction operation in a remote rural location will require that population follow to provide labor for the operation. An example of the second case would be the development of a retirement community in a location with sunshine and other positive environmental attributes that would not otherwise attract business. Retirees obviously would not move to such a location for jobs, but some service businesses and perhaps light industry would move to such a retirement community to serve the retired population. The important issue is not whether one case or another can be correct but, rather, what is the typical mechanism of economic and demographic growth? 3.1 THEORY The two different possibilities for population/industrial location shift interactions are exemplified in theory by (1) the previously discussed exportbase theory in which the location of industry explains the migration of population, and (2) the Borts and Stein1 hypothesis that differential changes in employment are induced by differential rates of in-migration. There are several works that attempt to use and verify one or the other of these two theories. However, there is only one widely recognized attempt to test both theories simultaneously in order to1 determine which is the more generally valid. This is the Migration: Chicken or Egg? article by Richard Muth.2 In this study, Muth constructs a two-equation model that simultaneously estimates migration and total employment growth of large U.S. urban areas during the period 1950- 1960. His results support the Borts-Stein hypothesis to a greater degree than the export-base theory. A more recent, and less known, study of population/ employment growth is a Ph.D. dissertation by Santini.3 In this study, Santini constructs a four-equation model that simultaneously estimates center-city
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