growth into manufacturing and nonmanufacturing employment growth. This allows him to make a distinction between the basic and nonbasic sectors as required to verify (or refute) the export-base theory. Santini uses the Lowry Model of Metropolis* as the model of export-base theory. The Lowry model is an appropriate export-base paradigm to use because it spawned several other urban simulation models in the field of transportation planning. The fundamental differences between the Borts-Stein and export-base theory that were tested are the following: 1. Export-base theory predicts: a. No effect of population growth on basic sector employment. b. A positive effect of basic and nonbasic sector employment growth on population growth. c. A positive causal relationship of population growth on nonbasic sector employment growth. 2. Borts-Stein theory predicts: a. A positive effect of population growth on employment growth, b. No causal relationship of employment growth on population growth. Santini found, in tests of several versions of his model, that the export-base predictions were verified in every case. His results, unlike those of Muth, do not allow for equivocation. They indicate that the export-base model is a fundamentally correct description of the urban growth process.* 3.2 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, EXPORT BASE, AND POPULATION CHANGE Reduced to its essence, export-base theory holds that the growth of a region depends upon the growth of its "export” sector. The implication is that the expansion of demand for goods and services produced within a region and sold for export outside the region is the driving force behind regional Q growth. As Richardson has pointed out, an exogenous increase in the production of goods for sale and distribution beyond the borders of a region sets off a multiplier process of growth in the provision of locally produced and consumed goods and services. Thus, stimulating activity within the basic *Santini’s model and test results are summarized in a paper that has been submitted for publication. Until it becomes available in the outside literature, copies of this paper may be obtained by contacting the author.
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