Estimates of total new employment in the basic and secondary sectors of a region are obtained using multipliers derived from export-base theory. Since, as the theory indicates, the growth of a region is dependent upon the stimulus provided within the basic sector, the effect upon regional population is straightforward. In the demograhpic accounting framework, changes in the size and composition of the regional population are a function of births minus deaths plus net migration. Consistent with the theory of export-base, net regional migration is, ceteris paribus> a consequence of the stimulus provided by increased basic economic activity. According to export-base theory, the following effects would be expected to occur as a result of the relocation within a given region of an industry (or firm) engaged in basic economic activity. The presence of the new firm creates new basic employment financed by receipts drawn from outside the region. In addition, the presence of the new firm can be expected, depending upon the industrial diversification of the region, to lead to direct increases of demand for the products of regionally-based firms. As these firms expand production, still more job opportunities are created within the region. Finally, as the revenues generated by the new firm are passed as income to its employees and to those persons engaged in supplying goods and services to the new firm, the demand for products and services provided by local retail, commercial, and service establishments increases. This new income-induced demand has the effect of generating still more jobs as regional merchants expand their operations in response to the increased consumer demand within the region. We have described the mechanisms of export-base theory, now we will discuss some of the various ways that shifts in the export-base can be absorbed or assimilated by the local community. We examine three cases. First, is the case where basic employment growth is greater than that which can be handled locally in a small region. Second, is the case where basic growth merely sustains a region. Finally, we examine a case where basic growth is insignificant relative to the regions’ size. The size and composition of a region’s population are influenced by the creation of new basic and secondary (indirect and income-induced) jobs and income that influence migration. In those regions where the number of basic and secondary jobs created exceeds the number of available, appropriately-skilled workers (e.g., regions with small local populations), new workers and their
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