of export-base analysis to evaluate employment and population effects of energy or industrial development on any county, or combination of counties, in the continental United States. SEAM provides the following outputs at the county level: • Annual projections of baseline (non-impact) population by age, sex, and race; • Annual direct employment requirements; • Annual estimates secondary employment created by the presence of the new industry; • Annual projections of the locally available work force including commuters from adjacent counties; • Annual projections of the size and composition of in-mi grant households; • Annual housing needs and the subcounty spatial allocation of the new population; and • Annual estimates of the increased public service needs of the new population and the costs of providing them. A schematic diagram of the SEAM model is provided in Fig. 3.1. In making its projections, the model first forecasts the annual change in the national population of the host county to provide a baseline from which the future labor force can be determined and against which the impact of the new basic industry can be assessed. These projections of the change in the size and composition of the county population are made using the cohort-component method. Given these projections, the annual employment requirements of the new basic activity are determined and employment multipliers, derived from export-base theory, are used to estimate the total Indirect and income-induced employment effects. These estimates of increased secondary employment are lagged to better approximate the number of such jobs created in each annual period. Given estimates of the total number of jobs (basic and secondary) likely to be created in each year of the new project’s life, the size and skill mix of the locally available labor force must be determined. Forecasts of the baseline changes in the size and composition of the host county and all counties whose centers of population are within 60 miles of the assumed site are prepared by the model. In each county, the labor force participation rates (LFPR) by age and sex cohort are compared to national LFPRs and, where local rates are lower, the local labor force is assumed to grow to the national level for that cohort. The unemployed in the local area are added to these estimates to
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