yield the total size of the available labor force in each year. This pool of men and women is characterized by age and skill type using local data and the total available work force is divided into potential basic and potential secondary workers. Finally, the size of the available work force is reduced by the estimates, taken from a national highway transportation study,11 of the percentages from each adjacent county who may be unwilling to[commute different distances. Having estimated both the annual number of new basic and secondary jobs and the annual availabilities of local basic and secondary workers, the model determines the number and age distribution of persons (and households) likely to in-migrate. The number of in-migrants is estimated by assuming that each job unfilled by local residents will attract a new worker household to the area and that each such household has 1.2 productive members. Thus, the total annual change in the size and composition of the host county due to the new basic activity is determined. The age distribution of the migrants is then estimated by assuming that the U.S. migrant age profile applies to these migrants as well. Age distributions of migrants are substantially different from nonmigrants. The relative age profiles of the two groups can have significant effects on future growth rates as well as education and other service needs. The model next provides estimates of the housing needs and community settlement patterns of these new households using a preference-maximizing, income-constrained, linear programming system. Essentially, this algorithm recognizes that among the in-migrant population there are different preferences for housing, different preferences for community types, and different abilities to pay for alternative dwelling units. It maximizes each household’s preferences for housing type and location subject to their abilities to pay for these features. Once the new households are ’’assigned” to residences in different communities, the model determies the increased public service needs of the increased population and determines the annual costs of providing them. A special study of the service needs and costs was conducted to supply this data. This study surveyed the per capita requirements and costs of 11 public services in communities of five different types (e.g., rural, small urban, independent
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