Institutiona1 Only regulatory issues were addressed in the side-by-side assessment. The SPS, fusion, and other advanced systems may be difficult to operate in the current regulatory climate. The SPS could be additionally burdened by international regulations that do not appear to limit the other technologies. ALTERNATIVE - FUTURES ASSESSMENT The alternative futures analysis is the final step in the comparative assessment. It incorporates the results of the side-by-side impact analyses into future energy supply/demand scenarios. While not intended as energy forecasts, the scenarios provide a dynamic framework for examining specific issues and potential problems of various energy technologies under a range of plausible energy futures. More specifically, the alternative futures analysis provides a means for identifying and assessing the conditions under which a SPS system might operate in conjunction with conventional energy systems (e.g., coal and nuclear power) and less conventional energy systems (e.g., low BTU coal gasification and fusion. The alternative futures analysis involves three supply/demand scenarios: o Low electrification (340 PWe of electrical capacity) o Intermediate electrification (540 MWe of electrical capacity) o High electrification (1700 MWe of electrical capacity) The low electrification scenario assumes that constraints on the use of coal, nuclear energy and petroleum will increase. Moreover, consumers will prefer decentralized energy options and that a moderate substitution of capital for energy will occur. Hence, energy conservation efforts will be increased, and- there will be less demand for electricity. The intermediate scenario assumes that constraints on the use of coal and nuclear energy will remain substantially as they are in 1980 (constraints on the use of oil and gas are assumed to be constrained in all cases). Although energy consumers will engage in a moderate amount of energy conservation, the demand for electricity will continue to increase. Moreover, consumers will prefer centralized energy sources. The intermediate scenario appears to be the most likely case. The high case also assumes that constraints on the use of coal and nuclear energy do not increase. In addition, the "high electric" case is one in which most uses of energy are supplied by electricity. In this case, a centralized energy system is the cnly realistic alternative. In the alternative futures analysis, these scenarios are used to examine the results of the energy characterizations and side-by-side analysis in a
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