SPS COST METHODOLOGY AND CCNSITIVITIES Robert 0. Pi land Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics Houston, Texas INTRODUCTION Accurate cost estimates for any advanced energy system are very difficult to develop. All such estimates require assumptions related to technological advancement over an extended period of time. Nevertheless, the evaluation of a potential system requires such estimates, and a number of cost estimates have been developed during the Solar Power Satellite (SPS) Concept Evaluation Program. The present summary paper will describe one such estimate for illustrative purposes. It should be noted that no official cost estimate exists for an SPS program at the present time. Cost estimates for advanced systems must be considered from two perspectives. The first is the cost to achieve the initial operational unit. This cost includes research, engineering, demonstration, industrial and operational facility development, as well as the hardware and construction costs of the initial operating unit. The second is the cost to replicate the initial unit. The replication cost may vary as learning continues and productivity increases. For the purpose of estimating costs, assumptions are required. The reference system as described in reference 1 serves as a general basis for the present estimate. Primary elements of the system are depicted in figure 1. These include the energy system consisting of the satellite and groundreceiving station or rectenna, a space construction facility located in geosynchronous orbit and a staging base located in low earth orbit; and a cargo launch vehicle and a cargo orbital transfer vehicle. Other system elements include personnel launch and transfer vehicles, launch and recovery facilities, and earth-based production facilities. Each satellite is designed to deliver 5 gigawatts of power to an electrical utility network, and two satellites are assumed to be constructed each year for a period of 30 years resulting in a generating capacity of 300 gigawatts. The program is assumed to consist of a number of phases. Each phase represents an increasing commitment of resources as. confidence in the ultimate success of the program grows. The phases may be implemented serially although a degree of overlap may represent the most effective approach. Reference 1. Reference System Report, Satellite Power System Concept Development and Evaluation Program, U.S. DOE and NASA, October 1978.
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