OVERVIEW OF ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS Donald M. Rote Argonne National Laboratory Effluents from the transportation system are the major cause of SPS- related atmospheric effects. These effects include inadvertent weather modification, air quality degradation, compositional changes in the stratosphere and mesosphere, formation of noctilucent clouds, plasma density changes, airglow enhancements, and changes in composition and dynamics of the plasmasphere and magnetosphere. In most cases, these effects have been difficult to assess because they involve processes that are either not well-understood by the scientific community or are speculative in nature, or because they involve extrapolations of known effects to unprecedented scales. Hence, with few exceptions, the results should be regarded as tentative. HLLV launches have been found to have a significant potential for inadvertent weather modifications on a local scale. Under selected meteorological conditions such launches can affect convective patterns, alter cloud populations and induce trace precipitation. None of these effects are judged to be serious. Air quality impacts of HLLV launches are predicted to be very small except possibly for nitrogen oxides. If a short-term air quality standard is set as anticipated, then ground-level concentrations of NC^ due to rocket launches could exacerbate existing problems. However, the launches by themselves are not expected to exceed the expected standard. NO2 production can also lead to slight increases in acidity of precipitation on a local, intermittent basis. It seems unlikely that the enhancement is great enough to cause significant environmental effects. Stratospheric CO2 and H2O injections are estimated to be completely negligible from both the ozone depletion and greenhouse effect points of view. Small ozone reductions (a few %) are expected above 70 km, but the effect on the total ozone column would not be detectable. Repeated injections of H2O in the mesosphere will cause a long-term modification of the water concentration profile on the order of 15% near the launch latitude, with larger increases on a short-term, smaller scale basis associated with individual rocket launches. Short-term, small-scale ice clouds (noctilucent clouds) are expected to be formed but are not expected to reach global scales and therefore are not expected to cause climatic impacts.
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