ENERGY IMPLICATIONS OF AN AGING POPULATION A.B. Cambel, G.A. Heffernan; The George Washington Univ., Washington, DC 20052 C.J. DeVita; Georgetown University, Washington, DC 20057 This study provides various demographic, medical and economic information relative to energy usage for a segment of the population -- the elderly — which is growing in absolute numbers and also in relative population percentage. This growth is expected to continue well into the twenty-first century. The U.S. aging population numbered 3.1 million in 1900, and by 1977 it had climbed to 23.5 million. It can be stated with reasonable certainty that this figure will rise to 31 million in the year 2000 and A3 million in the year 2020. These figures, corresponding to more than 10% of our population, are by no means insignificant. As our fossil-fuel reserves are being depleted and the cost of energy mounts, it becomes apparent that the elderly will become increasingly vulnerable to the energy crisis, primarily because of physical tendency to infirmity, their economic and social situation, and the susceptibility to psychological depression. In some sense, it can be argued that the problem of the aged is little different from that of the rest of the population. However, there are certain subtleties that suggest that the energy problems faced by the elderly are not too different from those of the poor and the disabled. This "white paper" concentrates, therefore, on those aspects of aging and the nation's energy problem which are not usually related in our everyday consideration of these as separable problems. It seeks to identify the peculiar energy problems of the aged and to consider alternatives in the solution of these problems, in light of modern technology. The aging constitute an important constituency. This constituency has energy requirements similar to the rest of the population, but it also has distinct differences. For instance, in considering economics, the elderly are more likely to be disadvantaged and more likely to have to make the decision: heat versus food, medical care or quality of life concerns. Fifteen percent of the total elderly are classed as living in poverty, with those not living in families as bearing the heaviest burden, particularly those in the rural south. Our social structure presently takes account of economic disadvantages in the population. The structure is now and will in the future be called upon, increasingly, to include energy factors, such as a heating subsidy in this economic equation. While elderly are being challenged economically, their medical problem is compounded by their energy needs and their relative lack of tolerance to energy deficiency. This manifests itself principally in their vulnerability to abnormal temperature environments. Thus, they tend to require a more even temperature, inferring specific energy demand, for which they may not have the requisite financial assets. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the elderly consideration is the question of demographics of the "over 65" segment of our population. In addition to the most striking statistic, mentioned above, that of gross numbers and percentages of elderly in the United States, other numbers representing the demographics of the elderly are impressive. Some of these nuances should prove interesting to energy planners. Recent figures show almost 50% more "over 65" females than males. The elderly are not concentrated in the sun belt, although there is a discernible trend of movement to the south and west. Percentage increases of elderly population from 1970-77 was more than double for the south and west over the northeast and north central. While elderly exhibit a low propensity to move, they seem to move locally or to the south and west when they do move.
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