these availabilities cannot be exceeded are called "Constrained". Scenarios in which the postulated schedule of future availabilities can be exceeded are called "Unconstrained". We have also considered two cases as regards to the cost of alternative forms of energy. There now appears to be a reasonable consensus on the future cost of well-studied options such as shale oil and coal liquids or syngas. There is less agreement on the future cost of unconventional "decentralized" sources of energy such as windmills, passive solar, biomass, etc. Much depends on the rapidity of technological progress, the size of the market and the applicability of mass production techniques. To reflect these uncertainties, we included two additional constrained scenarios in which "decentralized" energy sources turn out to be much less costly than present day estimates. Supplydemand balances and energy prices are forecast for eight scenarios altogether. Of these, 6 scenarios are "centralized" cases. That is, they assume "high priced" solar energy ($9/million Btu). They can be classified as follows: So far nothing has been said about probabilities. At this point, it is appropriate to note that while no single scenario can necessarily be regarded as likely —there are far too many possibilities— there are different degrees of unlikelihood. The least improbable scenario, as we see it, is the intermediate constrained (CI) case, followed roughly in order of probability by UI and CI(d). The other cases are primarily included to bound the range of reasonable possibility.
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