Figure 1 shows, as a function of the initial year of a typical satellite's life, curves of constant probability that the difference between levelized cost of electricity from SPS and from coal is less than the indicated values. This figure is calculated for a fixed value of the standard deviation of year- to-year fuel cost change, of = 0.03. Another calculation. Figure 2, shows this parameter as abscissa and varies f as well. In the complete report of this work a number of parameter combinations are explored and comparisons made. Correlations taken approximately into account are: net energy content of SPS plant correlated with fuel prices; 0&M costs of the two technologies correlated; costs of plant (excluding net energy content) correlated. Monte Carlo calculations were made to support the validity of the normal approximation to the actual distribution of levelized cost differences.
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