issue basis, and no attempt was made to synthesize the results into a single figure of merit and rank ordering. Products include the preliminary side-by-side assessment and the alternative futures comparison (to be published in August 1980). The side-by-side comparison is a normalized comparison. The preliminary results are reported as per unit energy output, such as megawatt-year and are based on assumed economic conditions near the beginning of the 21st century. The alternative futures comparison will define plausible economic and energy futures and make comparisons based on the energy and economic climate pertinent to these futures. PRELIMINARY SIDE-BY-SIDE RESULTS The six issue areas used for side-by-side comparisons were cost and performance, health and safety, welfare, resources, macroeconomic and socioeconomic, and institutional. The comparisons were performed for technologies that are at different states of development — current, near-term, and advanced — and therefore have different degrees of information available (e.g., actual vs. projected construction data). Table 1 lists development and experience levels for the technologies evaluated in this preliminary assessment. Capital cost uncertainty factors and cost uncertainty issues are also listed. These cost uncertainty factors were developed on the basis of existing relevant documentation and on the judgment of the assessment participants. Cost and Performance A summary of the cost comparisons is shown in Table 2 and illustrated in Fig. 2. The energy cost ranges in Fig. 2 show overlap between the SPS and the alternative technologies. This overlap resulted frcm the preliminary side-by- side assessment assumptions that used independent cost estimated for each technology and did not take into account the correlated characteristics of their respective cost breakdowns. A correlated data base would provide a more realistic energy comparison and may reduce or eliminate the overlap. The following key cost drivers* and factors affecting uncertainty were identified in the analysis: • SPS: capacity factor, technology performance, O&M cost, cell production efficiency, cell cost. • TPV: cell production efficiency, cell cost, capacity factor. • CG/CC: gasifier cost, fuel price • LMFBR: fuel price • Conventional coal: fuel price
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