productivity. Beyond 1985, new federal leases of land with high-quality coal will keep prices constant until 2000, with modest increases thereafter to reflect increased long-run costs resulting from rapid production increases when the supply is not constrained. If the supplies are constrained and the price-demand elasticity is moderate or low, prices increase above the long-run costs until demand is dampened to the required level. Uranium prices, for convenience, are assumed to differ only between the constrained and unconstrained scenarios. The rationale is that future supplydemand conditions of the world-wide market, not local markets, will determine prices. Projections. Three scenarios were used to measure a range of possible fuel prices and supplies. They are: UH: An unconstrained scenario wherein energy price elasticities of demand are low (-0.25) and the energy/GNP ratio is therefore relatively constant. The unconstrained scenario is defined as possessing controls at about the level that existed in 1970. UI: An unconstrained scenario wherein the energy price elasticities of demand are moderate (-0.7 for industrial fuel use, -0.4 for all other fuel uses and 0 for feedstock use). CI: A constrained scenario wherein the energy price elasticities of demand are moderate, as in UI. The constraints imposed are based on environmental, health, and safety aspects of coal and nuclear fuels and serve to restrict rapid expansion of production. Petroleum and natural gas are constrained only by world market conditions. The delivered costs of fuels as projected by the RFF model^O are shown in Table 4.12 and graphically displayed in Fig. 4.12 for the period 1980 to 2030. For comparison, the EPRI Technical Assessment Guide^ gives coal price estimates of between $2.00 and $2.40/10$ Btu, depending on the consuming and supply regions. Our unconstrained price trajectory for LWR fuel agrees very closely with the EPRI projection until 2000, after which EPRI does not project LWR fuel costs. The corresponding UjOg prices for the unconstrained and constrained scenarios are shown in Fig. 4.13. 4.2.4 Cost Comparisons The comparative costs reported in this section were calculated by the revenue-requirements (RR) method used by utilities and prescribed by regulatory agencies. Levelized life-cycle costs were calculated by a constantdollar revenue-requirements method similar to the approach recommended by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) for the analysis of generating costs of alternative technologies.50 The important assumptions of this method will be briefly described here; a detailed description of the methodology is provided in the EPRI report.50
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