there is a 20% probability that the cost differential will be around 16 mills/kWh in the year 1990. This curve was plotted for the constrained intermediate coal price increases (2.4% real per year) and a 3% fluctuation. A real 4% discount rate was used. Curves similar to those in Fig. 4.26 were calculated for other coal price increases and fluctuations, but the results are no more representative than those shown in the figure. It should be pointed out that the probabilistic results were obtained using nominal values for coal and the SPS and only show the conceptual probabilistic differences. The exact numbers plotted in Fig. 4.26 are illustrative and should not be used as hard conclusions, because changing some of the assumptions (e.g., SPS cost distribution, coal price rise and fluctuations) could change the results substant ially. Fig. 4.26 Probability Curves of SPS Costs Equalling Coal Costs
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