listed in Tables 4.7 through 4.9 in Sec. 4.1. Each of the three scenarios CI, UI, and UH is considered under two conditions: (1) excluding the SPS from the energy supply system, and (2) including the SPS after 2000. Results of the side-by-side analysis are listed qualitatively in Table 4.34. Details of these results, as well as those of the alternative futures analysis, are presented in the following sections. 4.5.1 Land Overview. Land requirements were developed as part of the energy systems characterizations summarized in Sec. 3. These data were then normalized and compared on a side-by-side basis, by computing the amount of land required to obtain 1,000 MW of installed capacity. Both plant site and annual fuel cycle requirements were considered. Another side-by-side comparison was made on the basis of land per unit energy. This comparison accounted for load factor and, in the case of TPV, average daily insolation. Next, the scenario data were brought into the analysis to determine total land requirements for baseload electrical generation for the period 1980-2030. The 1980 figures provide a frame of reference for the differing results of the three scenarios (CI, UI, and UH) with and without inclusion of the SPS in the energy supply system. Transmission requirements were not included in any of the calculations because they have been shown to be about the same for all technologies, particularly in view of studies showing that 60 SPS rectennas can be sited within 500 km of a load center. Side-by-side results show that the solar options (TPV and the SPS) require very large, contiguous land areas. TPV could be deployed in smaller units (with the question of economic effects left unanswered), mitigating the requirement for contiguous land. On the basis of land per unit energy, TPV requires about three times as much land as the SPS, whereas coal requires about half the land of the SPS, and the nuclear options are about a factor of 10 lower than the SPS in this regard. Scenario results indicate that total land use (excluding transmission) increases 0-500% without SPS and 100-900% with SPS by the year 2030. Over the same period of time, baseload capacity increases 90-800%. SPS land requirements for the year 2030 are about 2-5 times the total land in use today for baseload electrical generation. In all cases, the low figures result from scenario CI and the high figures result from scenario UH; results for scenario UI fall between these values. Side-by-Side Comparisons. The energy technology characterizations of Sec. 3 provide the plant and fuel cycle requirements. The latter are significant only for coal (conventional coal and CG/CC are very similar and are aggregated for the calculations in this section) and the LWR. Assuming that land disrupted during the fuel cycle is restored in six years, the land use estimates are as listed in Table 4.35.
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