ALTERNATIVE FUTURES SCENARIOS Since the objective of this comparative assessment is to compare technologies projected for the post-2000 era, a great number of assumptions are required. Most of these assumptions are highly uncertain and interdependent so that a single consistent set may not present the decision maker with an adequate comparative perspective of the future. The alternative futures analysis was chosen as a means of providing a broader perspective of key parameters that may describe the future. The assumptions underlying the alternative futures analysis constitute a set of energy supply/demand futures or scenarios. Six scenarios were created from a consistent economic model so that interdependencies between economic assumptions were preserved. Scenarios were selected as a means of exploring and analyzing, not predicting, the economic energy future. The scenarios were selected to represent a plausible future world, and no probabilities were assigned to any of them. Scenarios were selected to provide a comparative perspective on the negative and positive aspects of demand and mixes of supply technologies in the post-2000 era. A model developed by Resources for the Future, Inc. (RFF)^ was selected for this assessment on the basis of several selection criteria -- sectoral detail, endogenous treatment of both capital investment and final demand, and transferable experience in the form of existing model runs covering the desired time frame, 2000-2030. One GNP trajectory was selected for all scenarios. For simplicity, three alternative price elasticities of aggregate demand for energy were considered, viz., H: High energy intensiveness, corresponding to low elasticity (-0.25); I: Intermediate energy intensiveness, corresponding to intermediate elasticity (-0.4 for residential and housing demand, -0.7 for industry, 0 for feedstocks); L: Low energy intensiveness, corresponding to high elasticity (-0.75). Regarding constraints, two cases were selected: U: Unconstrained supply of coal and nuclear power; C: Constrained supply, due to health, safety, environmental, and other limitations on the rate of supply increase. The three price elasticities and two different constraints resulted in the development of six scenarios. Each of these scenarios resulted in different supply-demand patterns and different fuel (i.e., coal and nuclear) price trajectories. Three of these six scenarios [i.e., unconstrained high energy (UH), unconstrained intermediate energy intensity (Ui), and constrained intermediate energy intensity (CI)] were selected for the alternative futures compar isons.
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