Fig. 4.48 Changes in Energy Expenditures for 2000-2030 Excess energy expenditures at 120 mills/kWh for SPS electricity would soon exceed the upper bound on the extra amount of capital investment needed to deploy SPS in all scenarios. The $20-50 billion range is calculated assuming SPS deployment at 10 GW/yr, SPS capital costs in the range of $3000-6000/kW, and coal capital costs of about $1000/kW. The ranges for scenarios UI and CI are based on reduced deployment rates of 5 GW and 3.3 GW per year, respectively, and assume that there are no increases in SPS costs at the lower deployment rates. Annual investment for the present $2 trillion-dollar economy (1978 $) is on the order of $300 billion. At the relatively slow growth rates that appear likely for the next twenty years, a scaled-up $3.7 trillion economy with annual investments of the order of $425 billion might be feasible. It can be reasonably assumed that replacement of depreciated capital assets accounts for at least 6% of annual GNP in the year 2000, or $225 billion, leaving no more than $200 billion available to finance economic growth of around 2.1% per annum. The '’extra" investment required to build 10 GW of SPS per year (scenario UH) after the year 2000 — as compared to the cheapest alternative (coal) — would be in the range of $20-50 billion, or 10-25% of the investment increment dedicated to economic growth. Obviously a less ambitious rate of deployment, such as 3.3 GW/yr, would have a smaller impact on economic growth. This extra investment could possibly cut potential GNP growth rates below the target level of 2.1% by 0.2-0.5% per annum. This drag effect would not be offset by low coal and gas prices even in a supply-constrained scenario. On the other hand, the drag would be proportionally smaller if SPS
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