Fig. 5 Alternative Futures Analysis of Annual Water Consumption for Baseload Electricity Generation Macroeconomic analyses included the calculation of changes in GNP for the year 2000 and, in qualitative terms, the effect on inflation due to deployment of the SPS. Using a target GNP of $3.7 trillion (all figures in 1978 dollars) for the year 2000, deployment of 10 GW of SPS power will require $20 to $50 billion of excess investment compared to the least expensive option (coal). This is 10 to 15% of $200 billion, the amount available for financing economic growth of about 2.3% per annum. Compounded to the year 2030, such a reduction would result in a $200 to $500 billion reduction in the target GNP of $7 trillion. If uranium and coal fuel supplies are much more contrained than presently envisioned, then deployment of SPS would reduce consumption of these scarce items and possibly reduce their prices. This could in turn reduce total energy expenditures, as indicated in Table 5. For the UH and UI scenarios, SPS energy costs of about 40-50 mills/kWh would result in a breakeven from the point of view of total energy expenditures. The institutional analysis focused on the regulatory aspects of electricity generation by coal, nuclear, and the SPS. The technologies were characterized relative to one another, and justifications for regulation, the level of governmental responsibility, and the cost of regulation were considered. Studies estimate that the annual cost of regulating the nuclear industry is about $6 billion, versus about $3.4 billion for coal. In view of the changing regulatory environment (e.g., the decentralization movement and the growth of power on the local level), SPS regulatory costs may look more like nuclear regulatory costs than coal regulatory costs. Regulatory costs
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