CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................... xi REFERENCES FOR EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........................................ xxxiv 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................ 1 1.1 Background...................................................... 1 1.2 Objective and Approach.......................................... 1 2 ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK ................................................ 4 2.1 Overview........................................................ 4 2.2 Comparative Issues.............................................. 4 2.3 Selection of Energy Alternatives................................ 6 2.4 Characterization of Energy Systems.............................. 7 2.5 Side-by-Side Analysis of Energy Systems ......................... 7 2.6 Alternative Futures Analysis.................................... 9 2.7 Assessment Integration/Aggregation Techniques ................. 10 3 CHARACTERIZATIONS OF THE SPS AND ALTERNATIVE TECHNOLOGIES................ 11 3.1 Selection of Alternative Technologies .......................... 11 3.2 Brief Technical Description of Alternative Generation Systems . . 14 3.2.1 Satellite Power System .................................. 14 3.2.2 Central-Station Terrestrial Photovoltaic System............. 21 3.2.3 Conventional Coal-Fired Power Plant........................22 3.2.4 Coal-Gas ification/Combined-Cycle Power Plant...............26 3.2.5 Light Water Reactor Power Plant............................30 3.2.6 Liquid-Metal, Fast-Breeder Reactor ...................... 32 3.2.7 Fusion....................................................37 3.3 Cost Characterizations............................................41 3.3.1 Satellite Power System .................................. 42 3.3.2 Conventional Coal-Fired Power Plant with Advanced Flue Gas Desulfurization........................... 45 3.3.3 Combined-Cycle Power Plant with Low-Btu Gasifiers...........46 3.3.4 Light Water Reactor........................................46 3.3.5 Liquid-Metal, Fast-Breeder Reactor .................... 47 3.3.6 Fusion Reactor............................................47 3.3.7 Central-Station Terrestrial Photovoltaic ................ 48 4 COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ................................................ 49 4.1 Assumptions and Alternative Futures Scenarios .................. 49 4.1.1 Assumptions of the Comparative Analysis.....................49 4.1.2 Alternative Futures Scenarios..............................51 4.2 Cost and Performance.............................................. 68 4.2.1 Introduction.............................................. 68 4.2.2 Uncertainty in Capital Cost Ranges for SPS and Alternatives.......................................... 69 4.2.3 Fuel Price Projections.................................... 72
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