Side-By-Side Analysis. The side-by-side analysis uses the characterization information with impact models to determine the impact of a technology, and then normalizes this impact to a unit of net energy output. The determination of impact in most cases requires assumptions about the state of the world (e.g., economic conditions, technology penetration, other environmental pollutants). These assumptions were made in a nonintegrated fashion from issue to issue. For example, in the health and safety analysis certain baseline environmental assumptions were necessary, from which incremental health impacts from the addition of another power plant could be determined. The results of this type of assessment are generic, not region-specific. The impact models are based on dose-response data derived from experience with existing technology, and the pollution levels they indicate do not necessarily represent projections of what the impact might be from pollution by new technologies. For example, occupational health and safety information was developed from the most representative current technology, in an attempt to predict the levels of occupational health and safety impact of the future technologies. The important assumptions (e.g., key economic parameters) that are made in each side-by-side comparative analysis are described in each section. Alternative Futures Analysis. Since the objective of this comparative assessment is to compare technologies projected for the post-2000 era, a great number of assumptions are required. Most of these assumptions are highly uncertain and interdependent, so that a single consistent set may not present the decision maker with an adequate and consistent comparative perspective of the future. The alternative futures analysis was chosen as a means of providing a broader perspective of the most important parameters that describe the future. These alternative futures perspectives represent an integrated parametric analysis of plausible but unforecastable events, to provide a broader picture of the comparative issues. The assumptions underlying the alternative futures analysis constitute a set of energy supply/demand futures or scenarios. The alternative futures scenarios describe the level of energy demand and the mix of energy technologies that are used to meet this demand, given a set of assumptions about the U.S. economy. The levels of technology deployment and economic assumptions in each scenario can be used to calculate a comparative assessment. The scope of this assessment is limited to electrical energy and does not describe mixes of nonelectrical energy supply. These scenarios are created from a consistent economic model so that interdependencies between economic assumptions are preserved. Scenarios were selected as a means of exploring and analyzing, not predicting, the economic energy future. The scenarios were selected to represent a plausible future world, and no probabilities are assigned to any of them. We are not attempting to eliminate uncertainty in our choice of scenarios; in fact, by choosing a range of scenarios we hope to explore the dimensions of uncertainty more fully. Scenarios were selected to provide a comparative perspective on the negative and positive aspects of demand and mixes of supply technologies in the post-2000 era. The remaining part of this section will briefly describe the procedure and the energy supply-demand scenarios used in the alternative futures analysis. A more detailed technical description of these scenarios is found in a separate report.29
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