| Cover |
1 |
| Title Page |
3 |
| Definitions of Unit Symbols |
4 |
| Table of Contents |
5 |
| Executive Summary |
13 |
| Alternative Technology Characterizations |
16 |
| Alternative Futures Scenarios |
18 |
| Cost and Performance |
19 |
| Development Costs |
21 |
| Health And Safety |
22 |
| Environmental Welfare |
23 |
| Resources/Macroeconomic/Institutional Issues |
23 |
| Conclusions |
26 |
| References for Executive Summary |
36 |
| 1 Introduction |
37 |
| 1.1 Background |
37 |
| 1.2 Objective and Approach |
37 |
| 2 Assessment Framework |
40 |
| 2.1 Overview |
40 |
| 2.2 Comparative Issues |
40 |
| 2.3 Selection of Energy Alternatives |
42 |
| 2.4 Charcterization of Energy Systems |
43 |
| 2.5 Side-By-Side Analysis of Energy Systems |
43 |
| 2.6 Alternatie Futures Analysis |
45 |
| 2.7 Assessment Integration/Aggregation Techniques |
46 |
| 3 Chracterizations of the SPS and ALternatie Technologies |
47 |
| 3.1 Selection of Alternative Technologies |
47 |
| 3.2 Brief Technical Description of Alternative Generation Systems |
50 |
| 3.2.1 Satellite Power System |
50 |
| 3.2.2 Central-Station Terrestrial Photovoltaic System |
57 |
| 3.2.3 Conventional Coal-Fired Power Plant |
58 |
| 3.2.4 Coal-Gasification/Combined-Cycle Power Plant |
62 |
| 3.2.5 Light Water Reactor Power Plant |
66 |
| 3.2.6 Liquid-Metal, Fast-Breeder Reactor |
68 |
| 3.2.7 Fusion |
73 |
| 3.3 Cost Characterizations |
77 |
| 3.3.1 Satellite Power System |
78 |
| 3.3.2 Conventional Coal-Fired Power Plant with Advanced Flue Gas Desulfurization (H-S Coal) |
81 |
| 3.3.3 Combined-Cycle Power Plant with Low-Btu Gasifiers (CG/CC) |
82 |
| 3.3.4 Light Water Reactor (LWR) |
82 |
| 3.3.5 Liquid-Metal, Fast-Breeder Reactor (LMFBR) |
83 |
| 3.3.6 Fusion Reactor (NUWMAK) |
83 |
| 3.3.7 Central-Station Terrestrial Photovoltaic (TPV) |
84 |
| 4 Comparative Analysis |
85 |
| 4.1 Assumptions and Alternative Futures Scenarios |
85 |
| 4.1.1 Assumptions of the Comparative Analysis |
85 |
| 4.1.2 Alternative Futures Scenarios |
87 |
| 4.2 Cost and Performance |
104 |
| 4.2.1 Introduction |
104 |
| 4.2.2 Uncertainty in Capital Cost Ranges for SPS and Alternatives |
105 |
| 4.2.3 Fuel Price Projections |
108 |
| 4.2.4 Cost Comparisons |
110 |
| 4.2.5 Cost Sensitivity Analysis |
115 |
| 4.2.6 Comparative Cost Uncertainty |
123 |
| 4.3 Health and Safety |
130 |
| 4.3.1 Introduction |
130 |
| 4.3.2 Methodology |
130 |
| 4.3.3 Discussion of Results |
133 |
| 4.4 Environmental Welfare Effects |
148 |
| 4.4.1 Introduction |
148 |
| 4.4.2 Comparative Impacts |
149 |
| 4.4.3 Generation of Air Pollution |
157 |
| 4.4.4 Climatic Changes Due to Air Pollution |
159 |
| 4.4.5 Thermal Discharges and Resulting Climatic Change |
160 |
| 4.4.6 Water Pollution |
161 |
| 4.4.7 Water Use Changes |
161 |
| 4.4.8 Generation of Solid Waste |
162 |
| 4.4.9 Land Use Changes |
163 |
| 4.4.10 Noise Generation |
163 |
| 4.4.11 Electromagnetic Disturbances |
164 |
| 4.4.12 Radioactive Emissions |
164 |
| 4.4.13 Microwave Radiation |
165 |
| 4.4.14 Aesthetic Disturbances |
165 |
| 4.5 Resources |
165 |
| 4.5.1 Land |
166 |
| 4.5.2 Materials |
173 |
| 4.5.3 Energy |
173 |
| 4.5.4 Water |
178 |
| 4.5.5 Labor |
180 |
| 4.6 Macroeconomic and Socioeconomic Issues |
182 |
| 4.6.1 Introduction |
182 |
| 4.6.2 Macroeconomic Analysis |
183 |
| 4.6.3 Socioeconomic Comparisons |
193 |
| 4.7 Institutional Issues |
194 |
| 4.7.1 Introduction |
194 |
| 4.7.2 Comparison of Present Regulatory Schemes |
195 |
| 4.7.3 Regulatory Trends |
203 |
| 4.7.4 Summary |
204 |
| 5 Assessment Conclusions |
205 |
| 5.1 Introduction |
205 |
| 5.2 Side-By-Side Conclusions |
205 |
| 5.3 Alternative Futures Conclusions of the Comparative Assessment |
213 |
| 5.4 Concluding Remarks |
218 |
| References |
219 |
| Figures |
7 |
| Fig. 1 Fuel Price Projections for Different Scenarios |
20 |
| Fig. 2 Development Costs of the SPS |
21 |
| Fig. 3 Total Quantified Construction and O&M Fatalities per 1000 MW-yr |
22 |
| Fig. 4 Alternative Futures Analysis of Land Requirements |
24 |
| Fig. 5 Alternative Futures Analysis of Annual Water Consumption for Baseload Electricity Generation |
25 |
| Fig. 2.1 Analysis Sequence for Comparative Assessment |
41 |
| Fig. 2.2 Comparative Assessment Classification System |
42 |
| Fig. 3.1 Satellite Power System Concept |
52 |
| Fig. 3.2 SPS Satellite Configurations |
53 |
| Fig. 3.3 SPS Efficiency Chain GaAlAs |
54 |
| Fig. 3.4 Efficiency Chain of the Central-Station Photovoltaic System |
57 |
| Fig. 3.5 Generation of 1250 MW, High-Sulfur Coal, Wellman-Lord Process |
59 |
| Fig. 3.6 Wellman-Lord Process |
61 |
| Fig. 3.7 1250 MW Coal-Gasification/Combined-Cycle System |
63 |
| Fig. 3.8 Summary of Emissions from a 1250-MW, Low-Btu Gasifier, Combined-Cycle Plant |
65 |
| Fig. 3.9 Simplified LWR Flow Diagram |
67 |
| Fig. 3.10 1250 MW Liquid-Metal, Fast-Breeder Reactor |
70 |
| Fig. 3.11 Configurations of Pool- and Loop-typePrimary Coolant Systems |
71 |
| Fig. 3.12 Schematic of NUWMAK Fusion Power Plant |
74 |
| Fig. 3.13 Schematic of NUWMAK Load-Leveling System |
75 |
| Fig. 3.14 Tritium Effluent System Design |
76 |
| Fig. 3.15 Development Costs of the SPS |
79 |
| Fig. 4.1 U.S. Energy Output Ratios, 1929-1974,and Base Projections to 2025 |
88 |
| Fig. 4.2 Simplified Macroeconomic Model of the Interaction between Energy and the Economy |
89 |
| Fig. 4.3 Ratio of Gross Energy/GNP |
93 |
| Fig. 4.4 Supply-Demand Patterns for Various Scenarios in the Year 2000 |
94 |
| Fig. 4.5 Supply-Demand Patterns for Various Scenarios in the Year 2030 |
95 |
| Fig. 4.6. Electrification as a Percentage of NetEnergy Use: Three Scenarios |
96 |
| Fig. 4.7 Delivered Oil Prices |
97 |
| Fig. 4.8 Delivered Natural Gas Prices |
98 |
| Fig. 4.9 Delivered Coal Prices |
99 |
| Fig. 4.10 Electricity Prices |
100 |
| Fig. 4.11 Cost and Performance Evaluation Framework |
105 |
| Fig. 4.12 Fuel Price Projections for Different Scenarios |
112 |
| Fig. 4.13 UgOg Prices for Constrained and Unconstrained Scenarios |
113 |
| Fig. 4.14 Typical Patterns of Costs and Revenue Requirements |
114 |
| Fig. 4.15 Levelized Energy Cost Ranges for Scenario UHb |
117 |
| Fig. 4.16 Levelized Energy Cost Ranges for Scenario UIb |
118 |
| Fig. 4.17 Levelized Energy Cost Ranges for Scenario CIa |
119 |
| Fig. 4.18 Total Energy Costs as a Function of Capacity |
120 |
| Fig. 4.19 Effect of Changes in Financial Assumptions on Relative Positions of Technologies |
122 |
| Fig. 4.20 Comparison of Coal and SPS Energy Costs with Fixed Parameters and Inputs |
123 |
| Fig. 4.21 Coal Prices (Constant Dollars) |
124 |
| Fig. 4.22 Real Coal Prince Increase |
126 |
| Fig. 4.23 Distributions of LevelizedFuel Cost and LevelizedCapital Charge of a CoalPlant |
127 |
| Fig. 4.24 Typical Cost Distribution for Advanced Technologies |
127 |
| Fig. 4.25 Distributions of the Sum of Cost Elements |
128 |
| Fig. 4.26 Probability Curves of SPS Costs Equalling Coal Costs |
129 |
| Fig. 4.27 Components of Comprehensive Healthand Safety Impact Analysis |
131 |
| Fig. 4.28 Procedure for Computation of Occupational Impacts of Direct and Indirect Construction and Component Production |
132 |
| Fig. 4.29 Direct and Indirect Occupational Fatalities fromUnit ($10^6) Facility Component Production |
136 |
| Fig. 4.30 Total Occupational Fatalities in Construction Phase of System with 1000 MW Average Generation |
136 |
| Fig. 4.31 Total Quantified Construction and O&M Fatalities per 1000 MW-yr |
137 |
| Table 4.24 Summary of Potentially Major but Unquantified Issues |
146 |
| Fig. 4.25 Distributions of the Sum of Cost Elements |
128 |
| Fig. 4.26 Probability Curves of SPS Costs Equalling Coal Costs |
129 |
| Fig. 4.27 Components of Comprehensive Healthand Safety Impact Analysis |
131 |
| Fig. 4.28 Procedure for Computation of Occupational Impacts of Direct and Indirect Construction and Component Production |
132 |
| Fig. 4.29 Direct and Indirect Occupational Fatalities from Unit ($10^6) Facility Component Production |
136 |
| Fig. 4.30 Total Occupational Fatalities in Construction Phaseof System with 1000 MW Average Generation |
136 |
| Fig. 4.31 Total Quantified Construction and O&M Fatalities per 1000 MW-yr |
137 |
| Fig. 4.32 Annual Occupational Fatalities from Construction and O&M in Baseload Scenarios with and without SPS |
147 |
| Fig. 4.33 Pathway of Energy Activities, Impacts, and Effects |
150 |
| Fig. 4.34 Land Requirements for Scenario CI, without SPS |
169 |
| Fig. 4.35 Land Requirements for Scenario CI, with SPS |
169 |
| Fig. 4.36 Land Requirements for Scenario UI, without SPS |
170 |
| Fig. 4.37 Land Requirements for Scenario UI, with SPS |
170 |
| Fig. 4.38 Land Requirements for Scenario UH, without SPS |
171 |
| Fig. 4.39 Land Requirements for Scenario UH, with SPS |
171 |
| Fig. 4.40 Alternative Futures Analysis of Land Requirements |
172 |
| Fig. 4.41 Schematic of Energy Balance |
175 |
| Fig. 4.42 Alternative Futures Analysis of Annual Water Consumption for Baseload Electricity Generation |
179 |
| Fig. 4.43 O&M and Fuel Cycle Labor Requirements |
182 |
| Table 4.43 Energy Use and Prices for 2025 Without SPS |
185 |
| Fig. 4.44 Coal Demand and Supply, Scenario CI |
186 |
| Fig. 4.45 Coal Demand and Supply, Scenario UI (2025) |
186 |
| Fig. 4.46. Coal Demand and Supply, Scenario UH (2025) |
187 |
| Fig. 4.47 Changes in Annual Energy Expenditures with and without SPS in 2025, as a Function of SPS Energy Price |
189 |
| Fig. 4.48 Changes in Energy Expenditures for 2000-2030 |
190 |
| Tables |
9 |
| Table 1 Developmental Status of the Technologies Selected for Comparison |
15 |
| Table 2 Major Characteristics of Alternative Central Station Technologies |
17 |
| Table 3 Capital Cost Ranges for Technical and Regulatory Uncertainty |
19 |
| Table 4 Levelized Energy Cost Ranges for Scenario CIa |
20 |
| Table 5 Net Change in Annual Energy Expenditures Due to the SPS |
26 |
| Table 6 Cost and Performance: Key Issues, Uncertainties, and Comparative Conclusions |
27 |
| Table 7 Health and Safety: Key Issues, Uncertainties, and Comparative Conclusions |
28 |
| Table 8 Environmental Welfare: Key Issues, Uncertainties, and Comparative Conclusions |
29 |
| Table 9 Resources: Key Issues, Uncertainties, and Comparative Conclusions |
30 |
| Table 10 Econotnic/Societal Issues: Key Issues, Uncertainties, and Comparative Conclusions |
31 |
| Table 11 Institutional Issues: Key Issues, Uncertainties, and Comparative Conclusions |
32 |
| Table 12 Energy Supply Options |
33 |
| Table 13 Evaluation of Energy Supply Options S1-S3 for DemandScenario UH - Unconstrained, High Demand |
34 |
| Table 14 Evaluation of Energy Supply Options S4-S6 for DemandScenario CI - Constrained, Intermediate Demand |
35 |
| Table 2.1 Candidate Alternative Technologies |
44 |
| Table 3.1 Technologies Considered in Initial Screening |
48 |
| Table 3.2 Quantitative Screening of Energy Systems |
49 |
| Table 3.3 Characterization Parameters for Plant Site and Fuel Cycle |
51 |
| Table 3.4 SPS Cell and Planform Power Characteristics |
55 |
| Table 3.5 Air Pollutants from a 1250-MW Coal Facility |
62 |
| Table 3.6 Solid and Sludge Wastes from a 1250-MW Coal Facility, 70% Capacity Factor |
62 |
| Table 3.7 Postulated Radionuclide Releases, 1250-MW LMFBRPower Plant at 70%Capacity Factor |
72 |
| Table 3.8 LMFBR Wastewater Effluents at Nominal (1250 MW) Operation |
73 |
| Table 3.9 Capital Requirements of the SPS(5000 MW), 1978 Dollars x 106 |
80 |
| Table 3.10 Operation and Maintenance Costsof the SPS (5000 MW) |
81 |
| Table 4.1. RFF Model Assumptions about Population, Labor Force, Productivity, and GNP, 1975-2025 |
90 |
| Table 4.2 Constrained Energy Supplies (10^15 Btu) for Future Scenarios |
91 |
| Table 4.3. Assumed Long-Run Costs per Million Btu |
92 |
| Table 4.4 Nuclear Fuel Prices (1978 $/10$ Btu) for Future Scenarios |
101 |
| Table 4.5 Electrical Generation in Comparative Assessment Scenarios and Two Other Projections |
101 |
| Table 4.6 Total Installed and New-Construction Baseload Capacity (1000 MW) for Six Comparative Assessment Scenarios |
102 |
| Table 4.7 Energy System Deployment (GWof Capacity) for Scenario UH with and without SPS |
102 |
| Table 4.8 Energy System Deployment (GW of Capacity) for Scenario UI with and without SPS |
103 |
| Table 4.9 Energy System Deployment (GW of Capacity) for Scenario CI with and without SPS |
103 |
| Table 4.10 Capital Cost Uncertainty Factors for Alternative Technologies(Low, Nominal, and High Values) |
107 |
| Table 4.11 Capital Cost Ranges for Technical and Regulatory Uncertainty ($/kW) |
109 |
| Table 4.12 Fuel Cost Projections (1978 $/10$ Btu): Delivered Prices for Three Scenarios, 1980 to 2020 |
111 |
| Table 4.13 Base Capital Structure and Economic Assumptions |
115 |
| Table 4.14 Levelized 2000-2030 Cost of Electricity from SPS and Alternative Technologies |
116 |
| Table 4.15 Effect of Reduced SPS Implementation Rate on Costs: Nominal Average Unit Costs |
121 |
| Table 4.16 Uncertainty Index for Health and Safety Issues |
133 |
| Table 4.17 Categorization of Health and Safety Issues |
134 |
| Table 4.18 Summary of Quantified Average Fatalities per Year per 1000 MW Generation, 30-Year Plant Lifetime |
135 |
| Table 4.19 Summary of Health and Safety Issues for Nuclear Fission Reactors (LWR, LMFBR) |
138 |
| Table 4.20 Summary of Health and Safety Issues for Combined-Cycle Coal System |
140 |
| Table 4.21 Summary of Health and Safety Issues for Central-Station Terrestrial Photovoltaic Power System |
141 |
| Table 4.22 Summary of Health and Safety Issues for Satellite Power System |
142 |
| Table 4.23 Summary of Health and Safety Issues for the Fusion Power System |
144 |
| Table 4.24 Summary of Potentially Major but Unquantified Issues |
146 |
| Table 4.25 Scenario Baseload Capacities and Electrical Genera |
148 |
| Table 4.26 Welfare Effects of a Conventional Coal Fuel Cycle |
151 |
| Table 4.27 Welfare Effects of a Light Water Reactor Fuel Cycle |
152 |
| Table 4.28 Welfare Effects of a Coal-Gasification/Combined-Cycle Fuel Cycle |
153 |
| Table 4.29 Welfare Effects of a Liquid-Metal, Fast-Breeder Reactor Fuel Cycle |
154 |
| Table 4.30 Welfare Effects of a Terrestrial Photovoltaic Fuel Cycle3 |
155 |
| Table 4.31 Welfare Effects of a Satellite Power System Fuel Cycle |
156 |
| Table 4.32 Welfare Effects of a Fusion Fuel Cycle |
157 |
| Table 4.33. Potential Severity of and Status of Knowledge about Key Environmental Welfare Issues |
158 |
| Table 4.34 Side-by-Side Comparative Assessments: Resources |
167 |
| Table 4.35 Land Requirements, by Technology, in km^2 per GW of Installed Capacity |
168 |
| Table 4.36 Land Requirements per Unit Energy Output |
168 |
| Table 4.37 Potential Materials Problems, by Technology, for Three Screening Criteria |
174 |
| Table 4.38 Summary of Energy Balance Data |
177 |
| Table 4.39 Water Consumption Datafor Energy Systems, 10^6m^3/GW/yr (installed) |
179 |
| Table 4.40 Labor Requirements for Specific Plant Designs |
181 |
| Table 4.41 Normalized Labor Requirements (per GW) |
181 |
| Table 4.42 Baseline Energy/Economic Data |
185 |
| Table 4.43 Energy Use and Prices for 2025 Without SPS |
185 |
| Table 4.44 Baseload and SPS Deployment Data |
187 |
| Table 4.45 Energy Use and Prices for 2025 with SPS Deployment at 60 mills/kWh |
188 |
| Table 4.46 Energy Expenditures with SPS at 60 mills/kWh and without SPS, for the year 2025 |
188 |
| Table 4.47 Energy Technology Labor Requirements |
193 |
| Table 4.48 Justifications for Regulating Coal Technologiesat Each Level of Government |
197 |
| Table 4.49 Justifications for Regulating Light Water or Breeder Reactors at Each Level of Government |
198 |
| Table 4.50 Justifications for Regulating Terrestrial Photovoltaics at Each Level of Government |
199 |
| Table 4.51 Justifications for Regulating SPS at Each Level of Government |
200 |
| Table 4.52 Comparative Cost Estimates (in 1978 dollars) for Federal Regulationof Coal and Light Water Reactor Electricity Production Systems |
202 |
| Table 5.1 Cost and Performance: Key Issues, Uncertainties, and Comparative Conclusions |
206 |
| Table 5.2 Health and Safety: Key Issues, Uncertainties, and Comparative Conclusi |
207 |
| Table 5.3 Environmental Welfare: Key Issues, Uncertainties, and Comparative Conclusions |
208 |
| Table 5.4 Resources: Key Issues, Uncertainties, and Comparative Conclusions |
209 |
| Table 5.5 Economic/Societal Issues: Key Issues, Uncertainties, and Comparative Conclusions |
210 |
| Table 5.6 Institutional Issues: Key Issues, Uncertainties, and Comparative Conclusions |
211 |
| Table 5.7 Energy Supply Options |
215 |
| Table 5.8 Evaluation of Energy Supply Options S1-S3 for Demand Scenario UH - Unconstrained, High Demand |
216 |
| Table 5.9 Evaluation of Energy Supply Options S4-S6 for Demand Scenario CI - Constrained, Intermediate Demand |
217 |