The feasibility of SPS as a cost competitive energy producer depends on significant cost reductions in a few major areas. For example, Figure 14-4 shows the effect of solar cell cost on the electrical generation cost. Since current solar blanket prices for spacecraft applications range from $ 5000 per m2 to $20 000 per m2, a cost reduction of two orders of magnitude is required. ERDA has set a goal of $64 per m2 to be attained by 1985. This is is an optimistic goal and is considered to be the low end of the range of 1985 solar blanket prices. The MSFC solar blanket cost shown in Table 14-1 is therefore based on $128 per m2 or double the ERDA goal to account for space rating and to add a margin of contingency. Although this estimate is still a significant reduction from current prices, it appears attainable when considering the combined effects of projected technology advancements and of mass production and learning. Another element considered to be a major cost driver is transportation. Figure 14-5 shows the effect of launch to LEO cost on generation cost. It can be seen that approximately one order of magnitude reduction in the current shuttle launch cost is required by the proposed HLLV to provide a competitive generation cost. Figure 14-4. Effects of solar blanket cost on SPS economics.
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