The probability distribution of net present value of the second unit is shown as a function of the price of power at the rectenna busbar on the first day of operation in Figure A-3. If the price of power at the busbar on the first day of operation is 30 mill/kWh (1974), Figure A-3 indicates that there is approximately a 21 percent chance (approximately one in five) that the second unit will be economically viable. Given these results, it is the low probability of a substantial payoff that is used to develop and justify SPS development program plans directed toward the pursuit of the SPS concept. Each step in such a program is viewed as a process of buying information necessary to make the decision to continue the development program. The major conclusions derived by the study to date are as follows: 1. The SPS may be cost-effective with respect to terrestrial fossil fuel systems by 1995. 2. Potential cost-effectiveness of SPS improves beyond 1995 due to: a. Increasing scarcity of nonrenewable energy resources b. Increasing environmental impact of terrestrial alternatives c. Continued technology development (learning). 3. SPS has the potential for supplying approximately 10 percent of the U.S. energy needs by the year 2025 (equivalent to total present consumption). 4. It appears that an economically viable and risk controlled program plan to pursue the SPS concept can be developed. 5. The technology areas critical to the successful development of an SPS are; a. The ability of man to manufacture and assemble equipment in space b. Solar cell technology (mass, efficiency, lifetime, cost).
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