among 10,000 SPS workers from the general population of all age groups, about 1,640 persons would be expected to die of cancer, in the absence of any additional radiation exposure. Based on the dose-equivalent estimate in GEO for the Reference System design (40 rem per 90-day mission) and ten missions per career (accumulated dose equivalent of 400 rem), the 1 inear-quadratic dose response model predicts increases of between 20 and 60 percent depending on the projection model (about 160 to 1,000 excess cancer deaths). The linear dose-response model predicts values about two times larger. Such cancer risk predictions are subject to a large number of uncertainties, as outlined in this report. In spite of these uncertainties, this SPS Committee concludes that the increased potential in cancer-induction risk due to radiation exposure in the SPS environment, as presently envisaged with the present Reference System design, can be substantially reduced. There is also the possibility that this radiation might increase genetically-related ill health, developmental abnormalities in the newborn, lens cataracts, and temporarily decrease fertility. If the radiation dose is substantially reduced, as suggested above for the purpose of reducing cancer incidence, the probability of these other health risks will also be reduced. Additional details regarding the space radiation environment and radiation health effects are given in Appendices A and B.
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