cost of conventional energy resources have a stable present value, and that cost for environmental impact is not yet factored in. Below only the changes with respect to the near-term characteristics are described. The near term market and the underlying analyses being described in paragraph 3.1.1. Remote Locations As stated before in 3.1.1, we expect the segment of remote locations with developed energy demand to be relatively stable, since a certain number of people will always live in these places, while a strong growth is unlikely by the character of the location. Summarizing, this category comprises towns or villages in Alaska or Siberia, research centers in Antarctica and small islands or groups of islands. The power demand per location ranges from 600,000 through 7.5 million kWh per year, with $0.22/kWh as a unit price for general remote locations and $0.58/kWh for Arctic regions. Both delivering continuous and dis-continuous power seems sensible. The argument to abandon conventional fuel at the high latitude locations to prevent pollution of the delicate environment remains valid also in this time frame. Developing Remote Locations The segment of remote locations with a developing energy demand has shown growth in the preceding time period, but in this time frame it is expected that larger energy demands justify the installation of large scale electricity grids. It is likely that further growth of this segment comes to halt, since increased demand by population growth in the remote areas and increasing development (extension of the grid) cancel out growth of the ‘remote' developing market. Price per unit remains $0.22/kWh at present value, with power demands for one location ranging from 10 through 10,000 kW or from 60,000 through 600 million kWh per year. The total market size is estimated to remain stable at 1000 billion kWh or an equivalent $220 billion per year. Market size can be assessed as follows. The energy demand for all developing countries in this time frame is currently estimated at some 70-1012 kWh yearly (by 2040), with 30% of that being electricity, so 21-IO12 kWh of electrical energy. Taking again 10% of this electricity demanded in sizes of 10 kW would give 33 million small villages, with a population of about one billion people. This seems not very realistic, and taking into account that grids are spreading more widely in these regions we assume that after growth in the near term time frame the percentage drops to 5% so that the demand of this segment remains stable at about 1000 billion kWh per year. At a price of $0.22/kWh, the yearly monetary market size is equivalent to $220 billion. The availability of hard currency in these regions is still expected to be a problem. Power Relay For mid term, a decrease is foreseen for the power relay segment. Since more grids will be installed by this time frame, the demand will spread over the Earth and less suitable “remote” locations will be available. The market size is reduces to the order of 1550 billion kWh, with the price level for energy transferred over 3000 miles being in the order of $0.01/kWh. Estimating market size of this segment, we have to assess global energy demand by power grids. The developed world shows a small decrease to 40-1012 kWh, while the developing world shows an increased demand of 70-1012 kWh. With 30% of these values being electricity the global grid demand is as high as 311012 kWh (40 1012 x 30 % + 70 1012 x 30% x 90%). Since the grids have spread around the world, the number of ‘relay' opportunities will have decreased since the demand is in general high everywhere, so let us assume 5% in stead of the previous value of 15%. Hence, the market size for relay power is estimated to reduce to 1550 billion kWh yearly. Peak Power The market for power during peak loading times has great similarity with that of power relay. The users are the electricity companies operating the grid in currently developed locations, and they will require high reliability that the energy source is available when the need it. The amount of power required is 500 MWatt or more per location, with an estimated global yearly demand as high as 6000 billion kWh. With a price of $0.10/kWh the monetary size is around $600 billion per year.
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