Long Term Earth Applications For long term Earth applications of space solar power, we consider the 2040 through 2100 time frame and assume that power delivery by space solar power to the electricity grid can be done on a large scale, typically gigawatts. In these cases space solar power is fully replacing currently used resources, and meeting both baseload and peakload demands should be assessed. For data on the future predictions used in this section we refer to Chapter 2. Segmentation of the long term market shows two main elements: • remote developed locations • electricity grids with baseload and peak power In the long term, we assume energy use is more evenly spread over the globe than today and relaying from one location to another will be less possible, since power is largely used everywhere and “remote” locations with cheap energy resources would be scarce. Electricity grids are installed everywhere, except for the remote locations in Arctic or polar regions: these are still expected to be inhabited by few people. Also the remote developing locations near the equator are expected to vanish in the longer term, with grids being installed in these places. We describe these segments hereafter, at first summarizing the results of our analysis and then giving justifications as applicable. Remote Developed Locations The remote developed locations maintain their characteristics of short/mid term, that is power demands are from 600,000 through 7.5 million kWh per location per year, with a price (at present value) of $0.22/kWh in general and $0.58/kWh for Arctic regions. The total number of these locations is expected to remain quite stable. Large Scale Power Delivery The large market in this case are the electricity companies which operate the electricity grids, which presumably have been gradually established in the presently developing countries as well as in they are established in the developed ones. Prices are $0.05/kWh for baseload and $0.10/kWh for peak load. Market size will be within the range of 401012 kWh through 1501012 kWh per year. Further, this market requires a very high reliability of the power source, both in availability and performance. Predictions are given for the development of the market size, and because long term predictions can easily be unrealistic, ours will be based on a low and a high scenario. The actual market size should fall within the high and low estimates. To assess the long term market for electricity the following assumptions apply: • predictions for world population and global energy demand are as per section 2.1, with the total energy demand for 2100 being 120-1012 kWh for the low scenario and 300-1012 kWh for the high scenario • basically 30% of the total energy currently produced is generated electricity (refer to Chapter 2); this percentage is expected to remain constant for the low scenario; for the high scenario this could grow to 50% • as average present end-user price for electricity we use $0.10/kWh at 1992 economic conditions; lower in the USA and higher in most European countries • delivering one kWh baseload power to the electricity grid gives 50% of the end user price, i.e. $0.05 • for peak power the price is double that of baseload power, i.e. $0.10/kWh. We assume here that peakload is from 07:00 to 10:00 (a.m.) and 17:00 - 21:00 (p.m.) • approximately 50% of the total installed power capacity is baseload, the other 50% being peakload power. Hence, 20% of the total electric energy demand (in kWh) is during peak load. The result is the figure below, showing low and high scenarios of the global electricity market from present to the year 2100.
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