A detail discussion of small launchers is presented in the next section. Medium launchers are the workhorses in the world's launch stable. Medium launchers could carry a modest Space Solar Power Program demonstration payload in the near term at a predictable price. Many nations or multi-national organizations have medium launchers. The Europeans have the Ariane 4, the US has the Atlas, Delta II, and Titan II, and the Japanese have the H-l. The H-l has just been retired from the Japanese stable. The Martin Marietta Titan II is headed for use as a low-cost military launcher and should have little or no effect on the commercial launch industry. The Chinese have the Long March CZ-4 and CZ-3A and the Russians have the Zenit 2/SL-16, Tsyklon/SL-14. Arianespace, launching the Ariane 4, provides transport to orbit for over half of the “open market payloads” Open market payloads are available for competition of launch providers. Another market type is a closed market; an example is the USA military payloads. Only USA launch providers may launch these payloads. This policy is under question and review however, a change allowing non US launch providers to launch US military payloads is highly unlikely given the current commercial position of major US launch providers. The recent Russian and Chinese entry into the commercial launch markets introduce some market uncertainty. The Chinese's Long March series provides commercial launches but only hold a small market share. Their stable of modern medium launchers can provide customers with a large range of payload capabilities and orbits; also, the Chinese offer attractive commercial arrangements with extremely competitive pricing. The Russians are in a similar position to the Chinese. Currently, their vehicles are available at extremely attractive prices. However in both cases, allowing open market payloads to be launched on either Russian or Chinese vehicles would financially affect US and European launch providers. Recently, the US gave approval for an INMARSAT that contains US technology to be launched on a Russian vehicle. A Long March 2 CZ-2C and Long March 3 CZ-3 have launched open market payloads and agreements exist for future launches. One analysis for this situation is the number of launches allowed (approximately nine) will not have a great financial impact on Arianespace, General Dynamics, McDonnell Douglas or Martin Marietta. The evolution of the medium sized commercial launch vehicle market should be interesting for Space Solar Power Program to follow. An internationally sponsored Space Solar Power Program demonstration payload could make a good argument for use of a lower cost launcher. If the country providing the launch were also collaborating in the demonstration, then governments might allow the launch of their technology on these vehicles. The Chinese and Russians currently offer launchers with excellent performance at a below current market launch price. The main question is what will the ultimate World response be to the Chinese and Russian ability to undercut current market prices. Many launch providers are somewhat secure in their closed markets and these closed market launches help keep the production lines open. Russian and Chinese launch prices cannot be expected to remain low indefinitely. Their costs most likely will increase for a variety of reasons: l)increased worker or material expense, 2)political changes affecting the commercial environment, or 3)the tried and true method of charging what the market will bear. Politics have a large effect in the market place right now; but, the future has a need for medium launchers: what the price will be and who will supply the service remains an open question. Few large launchers are available in the world today. Although there are many vehicles in development, the need for this class of vehicles has not yet returned to the levels of the late 1960s and early 1970s. The only the US launcher in this class is Titan III. The only other operational large launch vehicles are in the Russian stable: the Proton and the Zenit 3. The Titan III has few orders. Martian Marietta is not aggressively marketing the Titan and is concentrating on the military launch vehicle Titan IV. The Russian vehicles are available but have the same problems as outlined in the above paragraph. The Russians are aggressively marketing the Proton and have signed an exclusive contract with US marketing agents. Glavkosmos and a group of Australians have proposed launching the Zenit 3 from Cape York in Australia. A Proton or Zenit launched from Cape York would offer excellent performance at a very competitive price. Only two heavy lift vehicles exist today: Shuttle and Energia. The US Space Transportation System is currently making six to eight flights per year. The time to be manifested on a shuttle flight can be at a minimum three years to a maximum that has yet to be seen. Given current US economic conditions, a fifth shuttle, requested by NASA, is not likely. The shuttle rarely carries its full payload capacity. The Russian Energia also has limitations on its operational use. Only three Energia are known to exist; production rates are only one to one and a half vehicles per year. The Buran and the Energia programs have been placed on hold indefinitely with no planned flights. In general, the capability exists to launch payloads over 20,000 kg but payloads that have this much mass are rare. Typical commercial payloads are in the 4000 kg to 5000 kg range to GTO. Large mass payloads are not yet flying again in great numbers.
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