8.5 Future Space Transportation Systems One of the major show stoppers of the Space Solar Power Program project has been the high transportation costs. This was evident especially from the NASA/DOE studies in the late 1970's. Hence many other studies have pointed out that in the future inexpensive transportation to be essential. This is true not only for Space Solar Power Program but all major space projects. 8.5.1 What is Insufficient with Today's Space Transportation Infrastructure ? The space transportation infrastructure provided today is a rocky path rather than a highway. So bad is the infrastructure that no industry can be established in space and prosper. Before only governments could afford to walk the rocky path. Today even some governments are finding it to expensive. In the case of the telecommunication the satellite has to be built to match the transport. Hence a satellites is more like a handmade off-road “ Ferrari” instead of a “Volkswagen”. In a space project today the transportation cost is often conceived to make up 25% of the cost. Second order effect due to the bad reliability and availability of the transport increases the true cost to more than 75% of the overall project cost. To give an example a telecommunication satellite pays 25 to 40% in launch cost. Due to the launcher reliability and an other 20% is paid for insurance. Due to the availability, often a one year delay is customary which would give 10% interest costs. But the big dark area is how much of the extra redundancy in the design is driven by the fact of bad launch availability and hence the long unserviced lifetime.. This factor could be as high as 25%. Hence 75 to 90% of the project cost are transportation related. To continue the telecom example; imagine instead if a DHL/Federal Express was available for overnight transports to space. How would a satellite be designed - would it be built for 10 year unserviced life with a lot of redundancy - would it take 7-10 years in design and manufacturing before it was earning revenue. With a good transport it would probably be simple, with a backup on ground /in space. The telecom satellites could be manufactured “en masse” and customized late in the design. In conclusion if transportation's costs are reduced by at least a factor of ten and the reliability and availability is increased then the satellite/space segment cost will also be greatly reduced. Why do We Have the Current “Rocky Path' Space Transportation Infrastructure ? Well maybe the customer could afford a gold plated off-road Ferrari. Maybe the industry was pleased to supply what the governments wanted Today's space transportation rockets have been developed by government to maximize performance and not to minimized cost. One reason for this is due to that the mass of individual payloads have steadily increased. However the most important factor is probably that space activity is conceived as a high tech area. Performance is a good driver for technology and quality. To develop a new rocket from existing technology to minimize cost is not interesting for a government who wants a high tech space industry. Why then has there been no private initiatives to develop such a vehicle ? Well partly because the industries who have the knowledge have done pretty well making government rockets. Furthermore, the way current aerospace companies operate is not always compatible with the making of a cheap commercial rocket. The few companies who have tried to make cheap launchers have had too little experience or too little funding and a first limited markets Can and will this change ? Yes for two possible reasons • Yes if government recognize that low cost is possible and a must for the commercial development of space.
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