Mid to Long Term For mid and long term markets we may use the same model, adjusting the values of our baseline parameters as necessary. Most importantly, we can increase the amount of power sold, but technological advances will undoubtedly lessen the cost of power in orbit as power sub-systems become cheaper, lighter, and longer lived. Moreover, the large scale power users, such as 1MW orbital transfer vehicles (OTV's), will pay still less for beamed power because of the economies of scale in large power systems (i.e. if customers using high power levels had to generate their own supply, they could do so more cheaply than the typical cost of power in space and therefore will be prepared to pay less for a supply of beamed energy). We will estimate the future cost of power in space to be just $200/kWh. An analysis of OTV costs and revenues indicates that an operator of an OTV service would pay at most a few tens of US dollars per kWh (based on a 1MW power supply over a round trip of 120 days and revenues from the mission of order $60M). In order to most conveniently account for this reduced price for bulk users of power in the NPV model, we will assume that such bulk users will pay 10% of the price of power to small users. Therefore, we can generate the same effect on the revenues (or PVoi) in the model by entering just 10% of the amount of power sold to such customers, but at the baseline price. If the amount of power sold, excluding transportation (e.g. OTV) customers, is taken to be l(XX)kW, and the amount sold to a fleet of 10 OTV's or other bulk power users is 10,000kW, we enter into the model an amount of power sold at 2000kW equivalent at the baseline price. The model then yields the results shown here in Table 11.2. Table 11.2 NPV ■ Mid Term Ground to Space Laser It can be seen that with the baseline values we have assumed, the venture generates large profits over its lifetime. The possible “high value” of the operating costs in the table has been increased to account for the potential cost of increased power beaming from the ground stations, but the sensitivity of NPV to this variable is in any case small. The high sensitivity parameters remain those that effect revenue: power sold and baseline price charged. It should be noted that if the “low values” of both power sold and price charged are taken together, the NPV becomes a $1.8B loss, but remains in profit as shown in the table above if either low value is taken independently. Power could be provided to the lunar surface by ground based lasers, but this market has not been considered, principally because it is a specific power requirement which depends on a decision to place permanent human settlements on the lunar surface. The power requirements of such a base and the value of power have been assessed as up to 5MW and $500 per kWh on the basis of the cost of launch of a solar power/regenerative fuel cell system [based on data from Bozek, Lewis Research Center], Lower estimates put the requirement at a more modest 200 to 500kW at $100 to $200/kWh. Clearly the former estimate would drive a power beaming venture into large profit even in the absence of other customers, on the basis of the model presented here.
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