Table 11.4 NPV - Mid Term Space to Space It can be seen immediately that such a scheme is far from economically viable on the basis of the baseline parameters assumed. In this analysis, however, in contrast to the ground based power station case above, power station cost crucially impacts NPV. Amount of power sold and price of power are, as before, also sensitive parameters. However, while we have assumed a baseline cost of space hardware which is typical of today's technology ($10M per ton), we have also assumed a price of energy in space based on extrapolation of technology into the future. This is perhaps inconsistent. If we take the present day cost of energy in space ($1000 per kWh, as discussed above) it can be seen from the table that the NPV becomes large and positive at $24B. A more appropriate analysis might be to assume both a reduction in energy cost in space to $200 per kWh, and a comparable reduction in space systems cost in general: this would bring the price of a power station to of order $1B. In this case, the NPV shown in the table is $3B profit over 10 years. If these values are input as baseline parameters, the NPV model yields the results of Table 11.5. Conclusion The NPV sensitivity remains greatest with respect to amount of power sold, price charged and power station construction costs. However, provided the power sold approaches the 2000kW baseline, the project NPV is large and positive. It is worth re-emphasizing at this point that a lunar base would be an important user of power and if one is established it might render the power beaming venture successful even in the absence of other significant customers. Summary of Space Based Early Commercial Uses The Net Present Value cost models used for the analysis of space based early commercial uses are only as accurate as the associated baseline assumptions and input variables. The models of this section have therefore been necessarily simplistic, and no particular confidence can be attached to their absolute NPV outputs. The sensitivities that the models display, however, offer some guidance as to the broad requirements for successfully commercial ventures. These revolve crucially around the amount of power sold and the price that can be charged for this power. In the case of space based power stations, a greatly reduced cost of space hardware over present day values seems essential for commercial viability.
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