Other Risks More general concerns have to be addressed to conclude this section and complete the financial risk analysis. An element which will be out of the control of the Space Solar Power Program leaders is competition. Development of a cost-competitive alternative source of energy could mean that the Space Solar Power Program would be abandoned. Considering research efforts involved in fields like solar and fusion energy, the market impact of alternative sources has to be studied seriously. In the same way, research resulting in the development of a process to extract CO2 from the atmosphere would calm environmentalists concerns of effects of coal and oil burning on the atmosphere. Considering all the elements presented in this section as potential risks from a financial point of view, financial investor confidence should be a major concern of the management. This concern should be seriously addressed during the development of the International Solar Power Organization. Potential success of the Space Solar Power Program will strongly depend on the efforts to reduce those risks. 11.2.3 Staged Plan for Financing The purpose of this section is not to define a detailed plan for the coming hundred years, but to outline the global plan and to describe principles that can be used to refine and adapt the plan as the program develops. Our approach is to implement space solar power step by step, gradually taking it from a development stage to a fully operational one. Each step should have clear objectives from the business point of view and reaching these objectives will build up confidence for starting the next step of the plan. The project size gradually increases from stage to stage, mainly indicated by the power levels generated. The plans for each of the two main markets (space based and Earth based) are separated, though there is commonality in approach and they can share technology. At first, the overall planning is discussed from a business point of view, followed by the approach to commercialization of space solar power activities common to both Earth and space markets. Plan for Space to Earth Solar Power The plan for space to Earth solar power shows technical demonstrations with low powers at first, in order to build up general credibility and facilitate the large scale deployment. Hereafter the operational capability will be installed, in 3 steps increasing the power delivered to full scale (5 GW). The steps proposed are: • Demonstration 1; space to space power beaming • Demonstration 2; space to Earth power beaming • 1 MW solar power satellite; revenues will allow for first business application • 500 MW solar power satellite; intermediate step • installation of 5 GW solar power satellites, evolution to full deployment This is depicted in Figure 11.5 below. Demonstration 1 For Demonstration 1 a few hundred watts will be delivered from space to a space located experiment, for a total project cost of $80 million. The main technical objectives are to demonstrate technical performance of power beaming by microwave from an antenna to a rectenna. Although the power delivered values $1000 per kWh, the short delivery time gives small revenues and it is not expected that they can be used in a commercial sense. More important from a business point of view is that the International Solar Power Organization (ISPO) should manage the project in order to show that the approach followed by ISPO delivers projects that deliver performance on time and within budget. This should build credibility for the ISPO, and giving confidence that it is capable of successfully managing all aspects of the next stage.
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