2 Energy Analysis__________________ This chapter provides context and a basis for evaluating the need for the space solar power program which will be developed in this report. First, a need for terrestrial energy is identified. Section 2.1 gives an overview of the actual energy demand and breakdown of energy consumption in the different economic developed regions of the world. Furthermore it provides information about future demand projections, including modeling for different demand and population growth scenarios. The actual amount of energy actually provided will depend on a variety of factors including production cost, available supply, and other market related issues. Then section 2.2 will address the question of how these energy needs might be provided. Discussion includes a description of the various sources of energy and their characteristics, the conversion processes for the major uses of energy, and the cost (present and future projections) of providing energy from each source. For Earth applications, a cost target is established to help determine the circumstances under which space solar power will be cost effective. Section 2.3 addresses energy supply and demand for space applications. 2.1 Terrestrial Energy Demand and Models According to United Nations estimations the population of the world is expected to increase significantly during the 21st century, with the largest percentage in the developing countries. Currently these countries are using one order of magnitude less energy per capita than developed countries. While the energy consumption in the industrialized countries might somewhat decline due to conservation policies and new technologies, the increase in world population and improvements of the living standard in the developing countries will necessitate a factor of 2-5 more energy production for the world. As energy production itself is responsible for more than half of the environmental problems facing humankind, we have to think about alternate energy forms which reconcile both: enough energy for the world and protection of our biosphere. 2.1.1 Current Energy Consumption It is common practice to divide the global economy into three distinct groups. This division is based on the fact that countries within these blocks have broadly similar economic structures, growth patterns and energy consumption. Thus it is a more fundamental breakdown than a regional one. • Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Countries • Less Developed Countries (LDC) • Former Eastern Block (FEB) In the OECD countries there is currently a large amount of energy use, but the potential for efficiencies and conservation is strong. The former eastern block is undergoing a major transition which will require a further increase in energy usage until market adaptations and application of new technologies have been completed. Less developed countries are currently at a low level of energy consumption, but they will require a substantial growth in energy usage in order to achieve an economic status similar to either of the other two blocks. In order to realize a future which enables the less developed countries to reach a higher standard of living an increase in their energy use will occur. To guarantee a sufficient supply without having to compromise global environmental goals such as reducing CO2 emissions, we have to look for new sources of energy. Energy Breakdown In this section the breakdown of energy consumption for the different regions of development in the world (so far as there are data available) is described, according to the following divisions: • transportation • manufacturing • residential • commercial (public, services). There has been a very rapid growth of energy use in the past century. Regarding the last 10-20 years developed countries made important progress in halting energy growth, but energy consumption is growing again in some of these countries, such as the USA mainly due to personal transportation and
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