efficient energy usage, resulting in a smaller increase than expected from the population growth, increase. Figure 2.1 and 2.2 Energy Breakdown Results for the Years 1978 and 1991 Breakdown Results for FEB The events of 1989 changed the political and economic situation in Eastern Europe; it is not a single unit any more, but from an energy standpoint of view, these countries can still be treated as an unique entity. No precise data for a usage breakdown in terms of residential, commercial, transportation and industry were found. In this section we point out more general comments on the situation in the former eastern block countries. Energy consumption in Eastern Europe has been growing linearly for a long time and shows no tendency to saturate. The efficiency in energy use in FEB countries at the moment seems to be still very low due to former political and economical situation, but there is a great potential for efficiency. Current trends would increase energy demand by almost 50% by 2025. In general the per capita energy consumption per year is very high and the per capita gross domestic product per year is very small, resulting in a 3 times higher energy intensity than in OECD countries. [Levai, Jaszay, 1991] Regarding the residential sector in Russia, the per capita consumption is low but the efficiency is not very high. Hence energy demand for the residential sector in Russia would more than double by 2025 in the absence of national energy policies. [Chandler, 1991] Without economic reforms, the Polish economy also would double its energy consumption by 2025. Also the transportation sector shows great inefficiency in FEB countries. As an example, the cars need relatively more gasoline than western cars, comparing the transportation capacity and horsepower. It is assumed that people in these countries will improve their standard of living, the energy consumption will increase enormously. So the energy demand could only stabilize or decline in Eastern Europe if there are economic reforms introducing the best technologies available at the moment. The reduction of energy demand in the industrial sector could come from structural shifts combined with standard energy conservation measures incorporating new standards which are available in the OECD countries. These reforms have the potential to reduce the energy demand by one-sixth over the next twenty years. The environmental situation in these countries will require these reforms have to be done soon. The combination of economic reform and the introduction of energy efficient technologies could hold energy demand virtually constant, or as predicted in very optimistic scenarios the total energy use goes down, as is the case in OECD countries. The success will depend in part on the cooperation of the western nations with the former eastern block countries. Conservation In the past twenty years the OECD countries have made important progress in energy saving policies. This decrease in energy growth could be attributed to factors such as: steady advances in technology,
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTU5NjU0Mg==