The growth rate for the calculation from 2020 to the year 2100 was assumed to be 0.5%, resulting in a population of about 10-12 billion. In Figure 2.3. the UN and World Bank projections are shown. Figure 2.3 Projected World Population until 2100 Future Energy Usage Projection Model by Lomer This model provides three different scenarios for future energy demand as shown in figure 2.4. The assumptions are as follows. For scenario one the case of industrialization of one third of the developing countries in each 40 year period is given, for scenario two an industrialization of two thirds of the developing countries in each 40 year period is presumed. For both it is assumed to halve the energy consumption in the industrialized and newly industrialized countries at the end of the next century. Figure 2.4 Future Energy Demand for Different Growth and Energy Consumption Scenarios. The calculation for the first scenario leads to an energy usage of about 2.5 times the current level of 10-12 TWy/year. The second one predicts an energy use which is about 3 times higher than the present value. [Lomer, 1991] But these two projections are very optimistic in terms of decreasing energy consumption in the developed countries. It seems to be more likely that the energy use per capita will remain at the same amount consumed now in the industrialized countries and that the
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