infrastructure peculiar to that sequence and fuel type. Switching from one fuel type to another implies discontinuing use of one set of infrastructure and increased load on the alternative, with associated cost impact. Figure 2.7 Sequence of Operations for Primary Energy Sources Environmental considerations will become increasingly important, especially in light of today's concern about the effect of carbon dioxide emissions on the Earth's climate. A reasonable and sustainable objective is to limit all forms of pollution and injury to the environment to a level that the biosphere can absorb. Regulations which require restoration of mining sites to their original state, restrict quantities and types of allowed air and water contaminants, and make cleanup of accidents mandatory will reveal the true cost of energy. Some energy sources will be more affected than others and there will be a corresponding shift in cost effectiveness. The other equally important element, which ultimately determines energy cost, is market supply and demand. The projected costs in Table 2.3 showed increases as a function of time based on a single future demand scenario. Changing assumptions about demand will effect these cost estimates. Figure 2.8 gives an example of the relationship between fuel cost and demand, which shows as the energy demand increases, the corresponding cost will also increase. [Scientific American Inc., 1971] The important point is that energy cost is a function of multiple variables. The relevant, qualitative ftiture trends developed so far in this chapter which will need to be considered in the marketing analysis are the following; (1) As discussed in 2.2.1, the world demand for energy is expected to continue to rise with the only questions being how fast and in what part of the world. (2) stimates of the worlds energy supply are meaningful only as long as they are accessible to those needing energy, but because of the nature of all energy sources (except solar) supply is under the control of the country in which it resides. Market analysis provides the link between energy demand (developed in section 2.1), availability of energy sources, suitability for particular needs (described in sections 2.2.1 and 2.2.2), and energy cost. This subject is addressed further in Chapter 3. In conclusion, the major factors which will influence future energy costs are resource accessibility (from both production and international stand points) and environmental constraints. Of course, unpredictable circumstances, such as a major breakthrough in fusion technology or a major nuclear disaster, would also have a significant effect on the direction and cost of future energy development. Random events aside, as accessibility decreases and the pressure for environmental responsibility increases, the cost of conventional energy will continue to rise. Given expected trends, the characteristics of solar energy will become increasingly attractive: it is equally accessible everywhere on Earth and not subject to international conflicts, the sun is a continuous and reliable source, and environmental impact is minimal. For these reasons, the question regarding the cost effectiveness of solar power is not if, but when. As the cost estimates for the space solar power program become more well defined, they can be compared to values developed in this
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