3 Markets________________________ This section on markets comprises two main subsections, 3.1 on market identification and 3.2 on marketing. In the first section the market for solar power is segmented primarily into near term (2000-2020), mid term (2020-2040) and long term (2040-2100), with a second subdivision of space based and Earth based markets. Further segmentation of these markets is given, and for each of the segments the basic questions will be answered: who are the users, where are they located, what quantity of power they require, what price level would be competitive and what is the present size of this segment. The predicted growth of the market segments is also discussed, and the overall trends can be traced by reading the three subsections of near, mid and long term. The section on marketing will describe what the actual product of the International Solar Power Organization (ISPO) can be, who are the players in the market, what are potential spin-offs, what is the proposed pricing strategy seen in light of forces of supply and demand, and finally, promotion and publicity. Here, the image of ISPO and its role as player in the global market will be addressed. 3.1 Market Analysis The first step in examining any potential program is to determine the market for the proposed product. For business ventures this market is expressed in terms of potential revenues, while for government projects it is assessed in terms of tax dollars and going to the public. A thorough market analysis can reveal any project show-stoppers or can provide a strong force to drive it forward toward completion. For the Space Solar Power Program the product is power, but it is power of a special type. Markets for power exist everywhere that people live or work, but markets for beamed power may be different from markets for power generated on site. The following sections will examine those markets as they are likely to take shape, in the near term and far, both on Earth and in space. 3.1.1 Near-Term Applications Near-term applications of space beamed power can most conveniently be categorized in terms of the end user: we consider below first space based and then earth based end users. Space In the near term, we consider only market scenarios where a customer satellite can make use of beamed power without any modification to the satellite hardware; thus it is possible to provide power to satellites already in orbit under this scheme. This serves as a definition for “near term”. The only power transmission technology that can achieve this is near optical or higher frequency EM (light), which can be converted into electric energy by the satellites solar arrays (the maximum wavelength for a Silicon array to generate power is around 1 micrometer). In general, a laser is the only practical means of generating high intensity, high power collimated light. Thus only laser based power beaming is considered below. The laser may in theory be located on the ground or in earth orbit. It is important, however, to consider the state of the art in laser technology, for the near term time scale leaves little potential for extensive research and development. Significant technological advance is necessary before high power lasers may be launched into space for reliable autonomous operation. State of the art lasers of required output (tens of kilowatt level) in the necessary frequency bands are extremely massive (of order many tons), inefficient and largely unproven machines that require skilled maintenance after every firing test. However, promising technologies are under development, particularly for example, the semiconductor diode phased array. Many developments may have been made during the US Strategic Defense Initiative, but are not yet in the public domain. A technical account of laser technologies may be found in section 7.2.2, but it is clear that a space based laser beaming power station is not viable in the near term. The emphasis of this section is therefore on ground based laser power beaming, which still poses some challenges in adaptive optics, power output and heat rejection.
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