We discuss each of these market segments discussed hereafter, first summarizing the main characteristics, and then giving the supporting analyses if needed. Data on world energy demand and future growth has been extensively used in this section (see Chapter 2). Remote Locations In the category of remote locations with a developed energy demand are towns or villages in Alaska or Siberia, research centers in Antarctica and small islands or groups of islands. Except for the islands, this category is located at high latitudes with harsh environmental conditions. The power demand per location ranges from 100 through 1200 kW (or more) or from 600,000 through 7.5 million kWh per year. As reasonable price level we found $0.22/kWh for remote locations, but for Arctic regions the price is estimated at $O.58/kWh due to higher transportation costs to these regions. Both delivering continuous and dis-continuous power seems sensible, since both take equal fuel resources at the remote location. We think of melting ice for drinking water, heating water in a boiler for later use, etc. This market segment will be relatively stable, since a certain amount of people will always live in these places, while a strong growth is unlikely by the character of the location. A specific argument for abandoning conventional fuel at the high latitude locations is that biodegradation is very slow due to the low temperatures, and hence pollution of the environment with spilled fuel can cause longer lasting damage than in lower latitude areas. It is assumed that 100 kW is the minimum power demand for these cases, since this corresponds to a practical generator size. In the US settlement in Antarctica there are presently about 200 researchers, with four 600 kW generators installed of which two are nominally used. The electric power demand in this case equals 1200 kW, with heating likely not being included (fuel can be directly used for this). For villages and islands the demand depends on the population size and could be higher, but since we have no data available on this we take 1200 kW as practical upper limit for this analysis. To evaluate the yearly energy demand, we assume a 70% time loading of a generator and get 613,200 kWh/year for each 100 kW generator (100 kW x 70% x 8760 hours/year). So the energy demand for a remote location ranges from 600,000 through 7.5 million kWh per year. No reference has been found about the number of these locations. Since diesel fueled generators are mostly used at present to generate electricity at these places, we use the corresponding cost to assess the competitive price range for delivering electrical power to their local system. Costs of electricity from diesel electric generators depend on the size of the generator, and are given below [Leonard, 1991]: • $0.57/kWh for 10 kW generator size • $0.22/kWh for 50 - 100 k generator size • $0.10/kWh for 250 kW generator size. ranging from a high level of $0.57/kWh through $0.10/kWh. The bottom end is equal to the average end user cost of grid electricity, and we therefore assume this to be as low as it can get. We would like to know the costs both at a remote and an Arctic location, and the cost of transportation for fuel and maintenance is obviously much higher for the latter. Since it is not clear what level of transportation costs are included in the above quoted figures, we have made a second assessment. In Biosphere2, the closed ecological experiment facility near Tucson, Arizona in the US, 4500 kW of diesel/gas fueled generators are installed. When running on diesel, fuel costs are $0.07/kWh. Another $0.02/kWh should be added if we assess capital cost, depreciation and maintenance based on further Biosphere 2 data [private communication with B. Zabel, 1992], giving a total of $0.09/kWh. This corresponds well to the above quoted low end value (250 kW size). Since we consider Biosphere 2 to be close to an urban area, the remote and Arctic locations should have a higher price. Fuel cost in Antarctica are said to be about a factor of 8 more expensive than in the US, which would give a cost level of $O.58/kWh which is near the high end of the above listed range ($0.07/kWh fuel costs x 8 + $0.02/kWh operations = $O.58/kWh). Considering this, we assume a price of $O.58/kWh for Arctic and other high latitude regions; if environmental cost would be factored in we assume that the price could be as high as a few dollars per kWh. A medium level of $0.22/kWh is a reasonable value for locations far from urban areas which have a rather high transportation costs (but not of the level of Arctic locations). Developing Remote Locations Remote locations with a developing energy demand are found primarily in developing countries at low latitudes. The present energy use as well as availability is small. Providing small amounts of
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