of LH2 and RP-1 systems. The design, development, test, and evaluation (DDT&E) cost is estimated to be about $10 billion with a first unit cost of about $900 million. This is high compared to the similar preliminary estimates of two-stage ballistic system costs (see the cost summary in table VI-3), but the selection discriminator will likely be the operational costs, for which the dry-land, launch-site recovery advantages of the winged system may prevail. For the two-stage ballistic configuration, in which both stages are recovered ballistically, Saturn V weight and geometry technology and aerodynamic data were used. Both 450- and 900-metric ton payload capability vehicle concepts were studied. Both LOX/RP-1 and LOX/C^Ho first-stage engines were evaluated. Outline drawings of each size vehicle and their characteristics are shown in figure VI-3 with a Saturn V for comparison. The DDT&E cost is estimated to be less than $5 billion with a first unit cost of less than $500 million for the smaller version, which has the same payload as the winged configuration. As mentioned before, operational costs will be the discriminator, and considerably more study is required on the cost of vertical water landing and the resultant refurbishment costs. Study results to date indicate that the goal expressed in the satellite power team study of $20/lb ($44/kg) to LEO is attainable for large-payload, high-launch-rate systems. It is not yet possible to determine the favored launch vehicle concept from among the modified SSTO, two-stage winged, or two-stage ballistic candidate systems studied. Operating costs must be much more carefully estimated. At this point, the two-stage ballistic vehicle is chosen to represent the minimum cost HLLV and the two-stage winged the maximum. A summary of estimated costs is shown in table VI-3. The indicated total cost per flight is preliminary and a more accurate determination will be a goal of future studies. In particular, operational costs must be determined, based on operational scenarios, including specific launch and recovery sites and manpower requirements. This analysis is required to determine whether the possible lower operating costs of winged recovery and SSTO systems will outweigh the lower initial costs of ballistic systems. TABLE VI-3.- HLLV COST ESTIMATES
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