III. PROGRAM REQUIREMENTS A. Projected Energy Demand Tony E. Redding and Barry M. Wolfer Urban Systems Project Office Projections of the nation's electrical energy demand have been made by the FPC (Federal Power Commission), the ERDA (Energy Research and Development Administration) and other federal agencies and private organizations. Figure III-l shows the FPC and ERDA projections for electrical energy demand through 1990 and 2000, respectively. The FPC projection through 1990 is given in the 1970 Federal Power Survey Report, Volume 1. The ERDA projection (given in ERDA-48, Volume 1, June 1975) involves six different technological development scenarios and their resulting electrical demands. The highest electricity generation scenario presented by ERDA is based on intensive electrification and it has a 4.4 percent per year growth rate in the year 2000. The lowest electricity generation scenario is based on improved efficiencies in end use and it has a 1.4 percent year growth rate in the year 2000. The FPC projection, which is higher than any of the ERDA projections, has an annual growth rate of about 6.0 percent per year in 1990. Because it represents the most severe requirements in terms of capacity needs and growth rate, the FPC projection was used as a basis for evaluating the potential of the SPS (Solar Power Satellite) system. B. Implementation Scenarios Effective use of solar power implies that SPS must produce a significant portion of the future electrical energy demand. Therefore, scenarios of SPS implementation rates were developed that would provide 25 percent of the new capacity by 2015 (scenario A), 50 percent of the new capacity by 2010 (scenario B), and all of the new capacity by 2005 (scenario C). The new capacity requirements are based on extrapolation of the FPC projection from 1990 to 2025 as shown in figure III-l. Figure III-l shows the cumulative new capacity (GW) addition for each of these scenarios and the resultant electrical energy (GWH) provided by SPS each year until 2025. Scenario B was used as an illustrative example by which to examine the SPS program in terms of its technical requirements and resulting economic analysis. This scenario results in providing a significant quantity of the total electrical energy by 2025 (31 percent based on FPC projection and 50 percent based on the highest ERDA projection). The SPS installed capacity by 2025 would be 1120 GW or about 30 percent of the FPC total. Based on a 10 GW SPS power output, as described in Section IV, a total of 112 satellites will be required to accomplish Scenario B. Figure III-2 shows a year-by-year summary of 10 GW SPS installations for the three scenarios over the 30 year implementation period. Note that in Scenario B, the SPS installation rate reaches 7 per year in 2023.
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