Numerous configurations were considered as candidate HLLWs including concepts developed by contractors. Three JSC design teams investigated the following candidate concepts and variations: These systems represent the range of launch vehicle concepts suggested by the Technology Forecast Section of the Outlook for Space Report and by NASA and industry experts. Particular omissions, such as mixed ballistic and winged systems and the very large (450 ton payload) single stage to orbit (SSTO) vehicles were considered in a study contracted to Boeing (NAS 9-14710). Study analyses conducted to date did not identify the mixed systems as leading candidates, although the large SSTO was considered a close competitior to the two-stage ballistic vehicle. The DDT&E costs developed for the HLLV concepts include the nonrecurring costs associated iwth the design, development, test and evaluation of the vehicle. The TFU costs include the recurring costs associated with the production of the first article in a hardware production program. No learning has been assumed as a part of the TFU cost. The estimating was done by using parametric cost estimating relationships (CER's) in which, for most subsystems, weight is the independent variable. In general, the data base used to develop these CER's included the following programs: Shuttle, SIVB, SIC, SII, Centaur, and various airplanes, with emphasis on the C5A. The data from these programs was collected, analyzed, formatted to a common work breakdown structure, normalized, and converted to a constant year dollar base. The adjusted data was then analyzed and regressed statistically, These statistical regressions, CER's, were then used to estimate the various elements of the vehicle. The sum of the elements gives the total TFU and DDT&E costs for each vehicle. In the cases where Shuttle hardware was used as is, the TFU cost was taken directly from Shuttle data and was not estimated by using the above approach. The DDT&E costs for this Shuttle hardware were estimated at a
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTU5NjU0Mg==