Utilization of significant amounts of solar power through photovoltaics is a relatively recent endeavor. The production of solar cells in the U.S. started in 1957 and until the past few years, has been directed almost entirely towards our space program. About four years ago, a major effort was started to reduce the high costs associated with space requirements to provide solar cells for a wide variety of terrestrial applications. From an initial $500/watt in 1958 to less than 10 percent of that amount currently, good progress is evident. Obviously, this level must be reduced several more factors of 10 to be competative in the near future. Since 1971, the solar energy budget reflects the growing emphasis on this energy source and photovoltaic conversion has accounted for 15-20 percent of that total each year. Figure XIA-3 shows planning milestones for the Solar Photovoltaic Conversion (SPC) program by ERDA as presented in July 1975 at the First ERDA SPC Conference. It is apparent that this relatively young program has many alternatives to pursue, therefore listing design specifics in this briefing would be meaningless. In 1973, representatives of the NSF/RANN photovoltaic energy conversion program presented the following estimates at the 10th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference: "The estimated electric power cost for a 1 kw average residential photovoltaic system using $0.50/peak watts arrays is 7<t/kwh, based on a 20-year lifetime, 14 percent overall system conversion efficiency, and a 15.5 percent cost of capital over a 20-year period. The electric power costs drop to 1.6<f/kwh with the use of $0.1/peak watt arrays. These $0.1/peak watt arrays are projected to produce power at 1.8<f/kwh for a 10 MW central station." From Figure XIA-3 the $0.50/peak watt (peak watt is the output on a clear day for a solar array normal to the incident sunlight) is projected to be feasible in 1980. This relates to 7tf/kwh or 70 mils/kwh, not a competative energy cost in the 1980's by most projections, but possibly competative by the year 2000. The more optimistic $0.1/peak watt array estimated achievable by 1990 could produce power at 18 mils/kwe, a very competative rate. Figure XIA-4 shows another evaluation of photovoltaic as performed by TRW for ERDA (Ref. 4). This, too, shows favorablecompetition of both solar approaches to conventional electrical power generation well before the year 2000. This analysis was based on a 30-year plant life, 13 percent investment index and a 5 percent escalation rate. Recent efforts by JPL for ERDA using what is expected to become a standardized economic methodology as defined in Ref. 3* and the best estimates of photovoltaic near-term technology to construct a baseload electric generating plant operational in 1990 produces the following chart. *1975 dollars, 30-year plant life, 10.5 percent interest rate and 6 percent inflation.
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