5 1.2 Study Questions The idea of SBSP is not new to NASA, which conducted feasibility studies first in the 1970s (NASA & DoE, 1980) and again in the 1990s (Mankins, A fresh look at space solar power: New architectures, concepts and technologies, 1997). These studies found it prohibitively expensive to develop, launch and assemble, operate, maintain, and dispose of SBSP systems ($1T estimate in then-year dollars for an SBSP technology demonstration in the 1970s and $250B estimate in then-year dollars for the first commercial kilowatt (kW) of power in the 1990s). The context of SBSP development has changed significantly in the last three decades, however, prompting this study. Public and private actors across the international community are motivated to develop SBSP for economic development, net-zero goals, and global leadership. The study seeks to answer two questions: • Under what conditions would SBSP be a competitive option for achieving net zero GHG emissions compared to alternatives? • If SBSP can be competitive, what role, if any, could NASA have in its development? Alternative renewable electricity production technologies that we compared to SBSP include nuclear fission, geothermal, hydroelectric, utility-scale solar photovoltaics with storage, and land wind without storage. The study includes nuclear power even though it is not usually grouped with renewables because it is considered “non-emitting” by the EPA (EPA, 2023). Given increasing investment and attention to SBSP worldwide, this study is intended to inform NASA decision-making regarding any potential Agency role in SBSP development. Therefore, we present options for consideration for senior leaders. 2.0 Methodology Overview To determine the feasibility of SBSP we estimated the cradle-to-grave costs and GHG emissions of two system designs: RD1 (Innovative Heliostat Swarm) and RD2 (Mature Planar Array) based on existing concepts with updated technology assumptions on mass, efficiency, and launch capacity. The lifecycle cost estimates were used to calculate the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for each system for comparison to terrestrial renewable alternatives using data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). GHG emissions were estimated using a hybrid mass- and spend-based Economic Input Output-Life Cycle Analysis (EIO-LCA) and compared to terrestrial alternatives using NREL data.
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